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21 Oct 2021
First Take: Pernod Ricard - Good start to the year
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First Take: Pernod Ricard - Good start to the year
- Published:
21 Oct 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
Strong beat in Q1
Q1 sales grew 20% on an organic basis (consensus +15.7%), a very solid beat. The on-trade channel continues to recover, and Pernod is particularly exposed to this channel. Strategic International Brands grew 24%, Strategic Local Brands grew 15% as Indian whiskies rebounded, Specialty Brands grew 21% helped by the success of recent brand acquisitions, and Strategic Wines declined 7% due to New Zealand supply constraints.
The US grew 9% as customers prepared for the festive season. China grew 22% helped by price increases on Martell taken last year and a strong Mid-Autumn Festival. India grew 27% against weak comps and helped by positive mix. Global Travel Retail grew 55% with a return to growth in all regions. Europe overall was +22%, led by a very dynamic rebound in Spain against weak comps.
Sales are expected to moderate from the Q1 rate as comps become more difficult. There is no change to the outlook, and although the beat is significant, it is only one quarter so we think consensus upgrades will probably be minor at this stage.