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13 Feb 2020
First Take: Pernod Ricard - Solid interims but coronavirus hurts outlook
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First Take: Pernod Ricard - Solid interims but coronavirus hurts outlook
- Published:
13 Feb 2020 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
4 -
Results ahead of expectations, but outlook lowered
Pernod reported 2.7% organic sales growth in the first half to December 2019 (consensus +2.1%). EBIT grew 4.3% organically (consensus +3%), with margins +80bps (+51bps organic) to 32.7% (consensus 32.3%). Strong pricing of +2% on the Strategic Brands helped to deliver the good growth. Despite the good first half delivery, the FY outlook is lowered, to account for anticipated coronavirus-related weakness, to organic EBIT growth of 2-4% (from 5-7% previously; consensus +6.2%). This assumes a “severe impact” from the outbreak, which management expects will mainly affect its Q3 (January–March 2020). There is a call at 8am UK time/9am CET.
Earlier Chinese New Year boosts Asia Pacific
China grew sales 11% over the half, helped by the earlier timing of Chinese New Year. India was +5%, but this was against a very tough comp of +24%. The Asia Pacific division overall was +3%, as disruption to the distribution network in Korea weighed on strong growth elsewhere.
Americas mixed
Americas +2%, hurt by slowing growth in Mexico and Travel Retail. The US continued to be resilient, with sales +4%.
Europe robust
Europe +3%, driven by improvements in Germany, UK and Eastern Europe. France remained challenging.