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05 Aug 2019
Investec - AB InBev (Buy): The fizz is back

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Investec - AB InBev (Buy): The fizz is back
- Published:
05 Aug 2019 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
7 -
Positive surprise in Q2. Despite the tough comp due to last year’s World Cup investments, volume grew 2.1% organically in Q2, with price/mix a healthy 3.8%. EBITDA grew 9.2% on an organic basis, supported by premiumisation. Growth was broad-based across Mexico, Brazil, Europe, South Africa, Nigeria, Australia and Colombia. The high end beers grew revenue by 19.5%, and Global Brands (Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona) grew by 8.0%. The overall performance was ahead of consensus, and the shares reacted positively on the day (+4.3%).
Profit growth should slow in H2, as comps become tougher. Most of the investments last year were made in H1 to support the World Cup; in FY19, the investments will be more evenly spread throughout the year. After 8.8% EBITDA growth in H1, we expect this to moderate to +6.1% in H2.
ABI’s share worsened in the US (-55bps in Q2) due to earlier than usual price increases. But, ABI took share in Mexico with the first rollout to OXXO proving successful. Elsewhere, share was flat in Brazil and up in Colombia & China.
Investment view. With cash conversion over 100%, ABI’s cash generation is impressive: at $10bn+ in FCF p.a., the company can meet its leverage targets on an organic basis. The sale of Australia and possible partial IPO of the remaining Asian business offer additional financial flexibility, but are not “must do” transactions. ABI has a strong geographic footprint with market-leading positions in most of the top beer profit pools in the world. Nearly 60% of sales are from emerging markets. We are bullish on the long-term growth prospects.