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25 Jul 2019
Investec - AB InBev (Strong Q2 across the board

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Investec - AB InBev (Strong Q2 across the board
- Published:
25 Jul 2019 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard -
Pages:
4 -
Volume, revenue, EBITDA better than expected
Organic volumes +2.1% (consensus +1.0%) is the best volume performance in over 5 years for ABI, with organic revenue +6.2% (consensus +5.1%). This is despite the tough comp (World Cup) in the comparable quarter last year – however, a later Easter will have helped Q2 slightly. ABI is also benefiting from the first wave of rollout to the OXXO convenience store chain in Mexico (the largest chain in the country); it is in 4k stores today and will be in all 17k stores by the end of 2022. EBITDA grew 9.4% organically (consensus +6.5%), driven by positive mix and good cost control. ABI has now delivered $3.151bn of the $3.2bn guided synergies from the SAB acquisition. Underlying EPS is $1.16 (consensus $1.10) / normalized EPS (which includes mark to market gain) is $1.25 (consensus $1.18).
Premiumisation continues to drive Beer
The Global Brands grew revenue 8.0% while the High End Company (ABI’s premium and craft brands) grew revenue nearly 20%. Revenue growth was particularly strong in Mexico, Brazil, China, Europe and the US. The US saw rev/hl growth of 4.2% in Q2, and ABI has delivered 57% of innovation volume in the US Beer category in 2019 to date. In Brazil, rev/hl grew 3.7% in Q2 and ABI took volume share in a Beer category that overall was flat (ABI Beer vols +2.8%). China premiumisation continues to be strong, with rev/hl +6.5%, as Corona and Hoegaarden grew double digits; e-commerce channel sales were up double digits. South Africa, previously a challenge for ABI, grew revenue by high single digits with volume up mid-single digits; ABI estimates it took share of the Alcohol category, but inflationary costs drove EBITDA margin contraction in this market.
De-leveraging ongoing
Net debt/EBITDA fell only slightly, to 4.58x, from 4.61x at the end of 2018; the company remains committed to reaching a level under 4x by the end 2020. The recently announced $11.3bn sale of the Australia business to Asahi will help with this process.