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05 Aug 2019
Investec - Novozymes (Hold): H119 preview: searching for growth
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Investec - Novozymes (Hold): H119 preview: searching for growth
- Published:
05 Aug 2019 -
Author:
Ian Hunter, PhD -
Pages:
10 -
Forecasts tweaked on FX movements: Having published revised numbers in late April (A quarter of challenges), and with little change in the markets the company operates in over the interim period, we only adjust our numbers on FX movements coming into Novozymes’ H119A results, which are due on 8 August. This results in a 0.2% increase in our FY19E FD EPS to DKK11.41 from a 0.1% uplift in forecast revenue to DKK14.94bn.
Divisions facing challenges: In its Q119A results release, the company noted continuing challenges in the Middle East, a decline in baking and starch enzyme sales, lower bioethanol production, floods in Midwest US and lower feed enzyme sales as factors impacting the business. While we presume that the flood impact has abated, we believe the other factors will have continued to impact performance through H219. As such, we forecast the company will report a 4.9% increase in Q219E FD EPS to DKK2.78 on a 6.2% increase in EBIT to DKK1016m and 5.4% increase in revenue to DKK3686m.
At fair value: Novozymes is trading at 27.6x FY19E P/E and 17.7x EV/EBITDA, what we consider to be a justified 6.0% discount to its peers. We continue to value the company on a DCF basis and, given the marginal nature of our forecast changes, our PT remains unchanged at DKK325. The share price has been largely range-bound between DKK300 and DKK325 over the past six months, with little sign of a catalyst to break through resistance and disappointing results testing support. Without the catalyst of acquisitions (the company prefers to grow organically), other than unexpectedly strong H119 results, we do not see a short-term catalyst to drive an upward re-rating. Hold.