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03 Aug 2021
Investec UK Daily: 03/08/2021
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | A.G. BARR p.l.c. (BAG:LON), 610 | Autotrader Group PLC (AUTO:LON), 445 | Coats Group plc (COA:LON), 80.4 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 1,469 | Domino's Pizza Group plc (DOM:LON), 185 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,662 | Hiscox Ltd (HSX:LON), 1,754 | Keller Group plc (KLR:LON), 2,397 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 431 | Rotork plc (ROR:LON), 306 | Smiths Group Plc (SMIN:LON), 2,467 | Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LON), 2,018
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Investec UK Daily: 03/08/2021
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | A.G. BARR p.l.c. (BAG:LON), 610 | Autotrader Group PLC (AUTO:LON), 445 | Coats Group plc (COA:LON), 80.4 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 1,469 | Domino's Pizza Group plc (DOM:LON), 185 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,662 | Hiscox Ltd (HSX:LON), 1,754 | Keller Group plc (KLR:LON), 2,397 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 431 | Rotork plc (ROR:LON), 306 | Smiths Group Plc (SMIN:LON), 2,467 | Standard Chartered PLC (STAN:LON), 2,018
- Published:
03 Aug 2021 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Nicola Mallard | Ben Cohen | Alicia Forry, CFA | Ian Gordon | Anthony Geard | Thomas Rands, CFA | Tom Callan | Rory Smith | Andrew Blain -
Pages:
18 -
The Q2 miss of c. 4% at EPS level (c. 1% for the FY) was mainly due to lower margins as a result of SG&A (bonus accruals are higher this year due to the rebounding business) and some slight weakness in the US market after exceptional market share gains last year. Both of these headwinds are expected to ease going forward, though the comps will clearly be tougher in H2 as COVID mainly impacted ABI’s H1 last year.
We update our model for the Q2 results, share price impacts on mark to market of hedges and FX moves. Our FY21E ‘underlying’ EPS rises 2.3% to $3.14 and assumes organic EBITDA +11.9% on organic sales +14.6%. Following the +22% organic sales and EBITDA in H1, this implies organic sales +8.4% and organic EBITDA +4.5% in H2 – and we think we are likely to be at the upper end of consensus.
ABI remains a top pick in large cap Consumer. We are encouraged by the quick adoption of digital technologies which should deliver superior growth and margins over time, as well as a stickier customer base. The re-opening of the on-trade will continue to benefit the group in the near-term, though we do not expect a return to pre-crisis levels of on-trade revenues immediately. The balance sheet is becoming stronger (net debt/EBITDA improved by 0.4x during just H1) and the new management team are seasoned ABI executives.
We leave our €70 TP and Buy rating unchanged. The recent sell-off presents a good buying opportunity into a multi-year margin expansion, debt paydown, and dividend rebuilding story – with M&A the possible cherry on top.