While challenges in China and Korea had already been flagged with the disappointing Q3 results, an unusually high number of markets have deteriorated in Q4 as well. These include countries in Middle and South America (Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Chile), as well as across Africa (Mozambique, South Africa, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda). ABI faces the toughest comp of the year in Q4, as Q418 organic EBITDA was +10% after tracking +7% over the first 9M. Combined with weakness in many of its end markets, we now expect EBITDA to decline organically in Q419E. There are pressures on the gross margin from FX transaction headwinds, COGS inflation and product/geography mix. The synergies from SAB are now fully in the base as of last quarter, so the company will be more reliant on cost savings to offset these headwinds going forward. Management has a strong track record in this area, but we think the market will be overly focused on top-line growth given ABI’s exceptional EM footprint (57% of sales). Strategically, ABI is in somewhat of a holding pattern. Net debt/EBITDA will still be 3.7x on our forecasts at the end of FY19E, keeping big deals like Castel off the table for now. Press reports in early January suggesting longstanding CFO, Felipe Dutra, is on the verge of resigning might imply that major expansion in Asia is not imminent. All this being said, we still see good value in ABI shares. Earnings are temporarily depressed due to macro pressures, tough comps, a weak share price and FX headwinds, but the long-term story is one of mid to high single-digit organic EBITDA growth and double-digit EPS & dividend growth as dividend cuts are reversed and debt reduces. We lower our TP to €86, which is based on a CY20E PE of 22x, and maintain our Buy recommendation.