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  • 06 Feb 2020

Investec UK Daily: 06/02/2020


AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Ashmore Group plc (ASHM:LON), 212 | Beazley Plc (BEZ:LON), 1,281 | Hiscox Ltd (HSX:LON), 1,802 | Imperial Brands PLC (IMB:LON), 2,803 | Tate & Lyle PLC (TATE:LON), 505

  • Investec Bank
    • Ben Cohen | Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard | Salvatore Caruso, CFA | Alex Smith

    • 9 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 06/02/2020


AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Ashmore Group plc (ASHM:LON), 212 | Beazley Plc (BEZ:LON), 1,281 | Hiscox Ltd (HSX:LON), 1,802 | Imperial Brands PLC (IMB:LON), 2,803 | Tate & Lyle PLC (TATE:LON), 505

  • Published: 06 Feb 2020
  • Author: Ben Cohen | Alicia Forry, CFA | Anthony Geard | Salvatore Caruso, CFA | Alex Smith
  • Pages: 9
  • Investec Bank


Reserves up again - The company has increased reserves by 277% in 2019, and this has largely been driven by its optimisation work and its Waterflood projects which, combined with bringing other development projects on-stream, has successfully mitigated the decline of its portfolio. We now expect to see an uplift in production from 2020 onwards, driven by multiple conventional projects. We do however highlight that these projects will require additional capital spend and we also see an uptick in our capex forecasts in 2020-23E. Importantly though, IGas is the operator of all potential development projects and this gives it flexibility and control over timeframes and capital commitments, given any movements in oil prices. Production ramp up - IGas’ net production averaged 2,325boepd in 2019, in line with our modelling and 2019 guidance (2.2-2.4kboepd). The company has also set guidance for 2020 at 2.25-2.45kboepd. Going forward, we expect to see an increase in capital spend, which will result in production growth from current rates of c.2.35kboepd to c.2.6kboepd in 2022E. Thereafter, we expect the company to be able to successfully mitigate the natural decline of its portfolio with plenty of projects still in the development hopper. Financials - Importantly, the balance sheet remains robust with the company exiting 2019 with net debt of £6.2m, and this included a one-off refinancing cost. However, the new RBL has reduced the overall cost of debt and provides further flexibility on future investment as IGas looks to continue its investment in its conventional portfolio. Valuation - We refresh numbers for updated guidance and our TP increases to 75p, largely driven by today’s increase in reserves. Catalysts - FY results (March 2020), Ellesmere Port appeal (ongoing).

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