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09 Aug 2019
Investec UK Daily: 09/08/2019

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Investec UK Daily: 09/08/2019
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc (HIK:LON), 1,836 | Irish Residential Properties REIT PLC (IRES:DUB), 0 | Kerry Group Plc Class A (KRZ:DUB), 0
- Published:
09 Aug 2019 -
Author:
Dr Andrew Whitney | Ian Hunter, PhD | Philip O'Sullivan | Ronan Dunphy -
Pages:
7 -
Minimal changes to forecasts: As Kerry’s H119A results and guidance were broadly in line with expectations, we only tick our FY19E adj. EPS forecast up 0.8% to 393.4c on a 1.6% increase in revenue to €7.18bn and 22bps contraction in EBITA margin to 12.3%. Given currency volatility, we expect that the 3.3% FX tailwind enjoyed by Taste & Nutrition in H119A will turn into a 1.4% headwind in H219E. We currently expect a 0.3% FX tailwind for Consumer Foods, but that could well reverse, depending on sterling volatility.
Acquisitions always on the menu: Acquisitions contributed 4.7% to Group H119 revenue growth, following a 3.6% contribution in FY18A. Having spent €327.2m on three acquisitions in H119A, we forecast acquisitions will add 4.0% to H219E revenue. In the H119 conference call, management noted that acquisitive activity over the next 18 months will “be quite reflective of the last 18 months” (i.e. a spend of c.€800m). We currently forecast that Kerry will have net debt of €1.88bn at FY19E year-end, which would represent 1.8x ND/EBITDA. “Stretching” the balance sheet to 2.5x ND/EBITDA could release up to €675m in H219E. At current multiples (15.0x EBITDA), this level of spend on acquisitions could boost FY20E adj. EPS by 2.5%.
Trading close to fair value: Kerry is trading at 26.4x FY19E P/E and 19.8x EV/EBITDA, a 14.8% premium to its peers (ex Chr. Hansen). We value the company on a DCF basis, which on our revised numbers ticks up marginally to €104.90 from €104.59 before. We therefore leave our TP unchanged at €105. As this implies a FTR of 2.0%, we retain our Hold call.