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11 Nov 2019
Investec UK Daily: 11/11/2019
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 569 | Cairn Homes PLC (CRN:LON), 171 | Carr's Group PLC (CARR:LON), 127 | Chesnara Plc (CSN:LON), 264 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,796 | Kainos Group PLC (KNOS:LON), 757 | National Grid plc (NG:LON), 1,063 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 599 | Rathbones Group PLC (RAT:LON), 1,612

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Investec UK Daily: 11/11/2019
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 569 | Cairn Homes PLC (CRN:LON), 171 | Carr's Group PLC (CARR:LON), 127 | Chesnara Plc (CSN:LON), 264 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,796 | Kainos Group PLC (KNOS:LON), 757 | National Grid plc (NG:LON), 1,063 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 599 | Rathbones Group PLC (RAT:LON), 1,612
- Published:
11 Nov 2019 -
Author:
Martin Young | Dr Andrew Whitney | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Nicola Mallard | Michael Donnelly | Ben Cohen | Ian Gordon | Salvatore Caruso, CFA | Ronan Dunphy -
Pages:
13 -
Unique set of assets. Chesnara is different to peers in that it has a balanced book across three markets – the UK, Sweden and Holland, with UK closed book generating most cash and Europe growth. The focus on unit-linked business is also different, meaning value creation is more sensitive to equity markets and new business value and less sensitive to longevity and interest rates than for peers.
Dip in cash, stable capital. Sentiment at H1 was impacted by the negative impact on cash generation from higher capital requirements after a sharp rise in equity markets, but cash generation still covered H1 dividends. Cash generation was particularly strong in 2017 on good equity market performance, while 2018 was supported by a material release from the with-profits fund in the UK. H1 parent cash of £84m covers the dividend for almost three years. Group solvency declined by less than peers at H1, but Scildon fell below its target, due to changes in asset mix (that may be reversed).
Focus on operations. Both Dutch and Swedish businesses sell capital-light products in competitive and transparent markets. Sweden has scale and the c.50% increase in IFRS profits at H1 best reflects work that has been done on costs. Holland is a work-in-progress - the focus on costs, distribution and product mix is to increase new business profits, with margins currently below target on modest growth and flat market share.
Material discount to peers and history. These headwinds mean a de-rating to levels last seen in the Financial Crisis for an 8% dividend yield. The discount to Own Funds of c.30% is also down to a historic low in absolute terms and relative to peers – both despite Chesnara’s superior track record through market cycles.