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14 Apr 2021
Investec UK Daily: 14/04/2021
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Investec UK Daily: 14/04/2021
Hilton Food Group plc (HFG:LON), 498 | Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG:LON), 819 | QinetiQ Group plc (QQ:LON), 439 | Robert Walters Plc (RWA:LON), 140
- Published:
14 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Ben Bourne | Nicola Mallard | Ian Gordon | Tom Callan | Rory Smith | Tom Brookhouse -
Pages:
8 -
Hilton Foods reported better than expected numbers for FY20, reflecting a strong close to the year and the benefit of COVID lockdowns helping boost protein consumption in the home. To a large extent we had factored this in, but we had also matched it with an increase in central costs which turned out to be too aggressive. The year also included a 53rd week, worth around £1.3m on profit.
Looking out to FY21, the challenge is predicting how the consumer will react as lockdowns start to ease and out of home dining can resume. In Australia, which has been open for several months now, Hilton remarked the return to hospitality outlets had been slow. However, until we have a clearer picture we believe it is best to remain prudent, and we have assumed little underlying growth in FY21E vs FY20.
There are some factors that will provide growth yoy – the roll out in Belgium will gather pace through 2021, and, in the final quarter of the year, we will see the New Zealand “food park” open. The group will also have a full year of Australia under its full ownership although this will make a bigger difference to revenue than profit, as the profit line was already benefiting since taking “operational control” in 2018.
Netting out a number of minor adjustments results in little overall change in our PBT forecasts (+£0.4m in both FY21E and FY22E). For FY21E, our PBT forecast shows c.7% growth yoy which would be very respectable against the strong year just delivered. For FY22E, our forecast PBT growth of 7.5% will be fuelled by the first full year from New Zealand. With no significant number changes, our TP is unchanged at 1325p and our recommendation remains BUY.