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  • 15 Feb 2021

Investec UK Daily: 15/02/2021


JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 80.6 | Sage Group plc (SGE:LON), 1,248 | TBC Bank Group Plc (TBCG:LON), 4,495

  • Investec Bank
    • Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Ian Gordon

    • 7 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 15/02/2021


JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 80.6 | Sage Group plc (SGE:LON), 1,248 | TBC Bank Group Plc (TBCG:LON), 4,495

  • Published: 15 Feb 2021
  • Author: Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Ian Gordon
  • Pages: 7
  • Investec Bank


JD has cemented its position in the largest athleisure market in the world. The recent US acquisitions of Shoe Palace and DTLR adds valuable scale and, together with Finish Line/JD Sports fascias, the combined US sales base of c.$3.3bn is now just over half the size of Foot Locker US. JD has a strong US platform from which to grow and take market share. All 4 fascias are distinctive and complementary in terms of geographical and demographics. JD could overtake Foot Locker as the No 1 multi-brand athleisure retailer globally in 2021, according to consensus estimates, helping to strengthen its relationships with the global brands even further. Forecast updates reflect the £464m equity raise, via a placing of 58.4m shares at 795p (6% placing). We make no change to FY21E. FY22E/FY23E PBT increase by c.0.5% & EPS decrease by c.5.5%. JD should emerge from the pandemic with a step change in earnings and strong momentum, helped by the number of acquisitions/historic investments, which underpin current consensus. We simplistically estimate ‘normalised EPS’ to be c.42p, by taking FY20 earnings, adjusting for losses the Group was carrying in FY20, improvement in US & Australia profitability during the pandemic, and acquisitions since. This figure does not include operational improvements, LFL growth and new space additions. Timing and type of future acquisitions unknown, but the Group has c.£500m of net cash on the balance sheet post deferred payments. If JD generated a pre-tax ROCE of 15%-20%, this could add EBIT of £75m-£100m. If it dipped into its c.£1bn global debt facility, the profit benefit could be higher. Valuation (CY22E PE 19.1x) does not reflect JD’s strong cash generation and growth opportunity. We see a great opportunity to leverage its established US & European growth platforms, backed by a highly profitable UK business.

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