Lessons from Phoenix’s outperformance. We think the main lesson from Phoenix’s outperformance and re-rating versus Aviva is to give clear cash generation guidance, on a one-year, five-year and long-term basis. Also, an outlook on uses of cash over time – including interest costs, debt repayments, pension funding and dividends. While a work in progress, Phoenix has also better communicated how its open book profits should enhance cash generation, an important topic on which Aviva needs to convince, in our view. Life into run-off? Our analysis suggests current dividend levels should be sustainable for ten years, even under a scenario in which Life would be put into run-off and there is no growth in earnings in General Insurance and Aviva Investors beyond FY21. This is from the starting point of a strong solvency ratio of 184% at H1 2019, above the company’s target range of 160-180%. Run-off not our central scenario, but analysis increases confidence in cash. We do not think Aviva will actually close to all new business – it has been successful in reducing capital strain in recent years, and there is probably scope to go further, perhaps by reducing participation in the bulk annuity market. The potential sale of assets, including Asia, could free up additional capital, although buybacks would be needed to limit dilution. We see a bigger break-up as unlikely given material diversification benefits and a large pension liability. New target based on yield premium to Phoenix. With reference to Phoenix yielding 7%, and our 750p Phoenix price target based on a 6.25% dividend yield, we base our new 455p price target for Aviva on a 7% dividend yield on FY20E DPS. On a Solvency II basis, our price target equates to 95% of FY19E Own Funds, in-line with the multiple we target for Phoenix.