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26 Feb 2020
Investec UK Daily: 26/02/2020
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Carlsberg (CARL-B:CPH), 0 | Carlsberg AS Class B (CARL.B:CSE), 0 | Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd. (2836:KLS), 0 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 2,036 | Heineken NV (HEIA:AMS), 0 | Metro Bank Holdings Plc (MTRO:LON), 112 | Pernod Ricard (RI:EPA), 0 | Pernod Ricard SA (RI:PAR), 0 | Remy Cointreau (RCO:EPA), 0 | Remy Cointreau SA (RCO:PAR), 0 | Weir Group PLC (WEIR:LON), 2,425

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Investec UK Daily: 26/02/2020
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Carlsberg (CARL-B:CPH), 0 | Carlsberg AS Class B (CARL.B:CSE), 0 | Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd. (2836:KLS), 0 | Diageo plc (DGE:LON), 2,036 | Heineken NV (HEIA:AMS), 0 | Metro Bank Holdings Plc (MTRO:LON), 112 | Pernod Ricard (RI:EPA), 0 | Pernod Ricard SA (RI:PAR), 0 | Remy Cointreau (RCO:EPA), 0 | Remy Cointreau SA (RCO:PAR), 0 | Weir Group PLC (WEIR:LON), 2,425
- Published:
26 Feb 2020 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Scott Cagehin | Alicia Forry, CFA | Ian Gordon | Thomas Rands, CFA -
Pages:
9 -
The Metro Bank story had been built on an ability to grow (cheap) “relationship” customer deposits at pace, so its standalone strategy has de facto been “on hold” ahead of today’s FY19 results. In essence, there is no value in growing finely priced mortgage assets funded by expensive fixed term bonds.
In Q4 2019, customer deposits actually grew by £246m (2%) QoQ to £14.5bn, albeit this included a £256m QoQ increase in fixed term deposits. More encouragingly, there was modest (2%) growth in current accounts and a useful £540m (9%) increase in retail savings offsetting further outflows in the retail partnership and commercial segments.
Customer loans were (quite deliberately) managed down by a net £210m (1%) QoQ to £14.7bn. Credit costs rose from 5bps in Q3 to 14bps in Q4.
The shares “peaked” at 264p in early November following an Evening Standard article published on 1 Nov which suggested that Lloyds Banking Group (Buy) may be contemplating a bid. We would not discount the possibility of a bid from another bank, or private equity, whether for specific loan portfolios or even the entire business, albeit in the context of outstanding regulatory investigations, that might prove more complex.
Metro trades on just 0.2x 2019 tNAV which is, we think, a reflection of its significant strategic challenges. For now, we reserve judgement on management’s (we think surprisingly optimistic) new targets, which include a >8.5% statutory ROTE objective by 2024. Recommendation, target price and forecasts all under review.
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