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29 Jan 2020
Investec UK Daily: 29/01/2020
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON), 120 | Hargreaves Services plc (HSP:LON), 658 | Quilter Plc (QLT:LON), 182 | Saga plc (SAGA:LON), 268 | United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON), 1,204
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Investec UK Daily: 29/01/2020
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON), 120 | Hargreaves Services plc (HSP:LON), 658 | Quilter Plc (QLT:LON), 182 | Saga plc (SAGA:LON), 268 | United Utilities Group PLC (UU:LON), 1,204
- Published:
29 Jan 2020 -
Author:
Martin Young | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Kellie McAvoy | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Michael Donnelly | Ben Cohen | Salvatore Caruso, CFA -
Pages:
11 -
Headlines. Mountie headcount grew 5% to 3,924, compared to 3,846 in H119 and 3,747 in FY18. Net group H219 additions were 78 vs 99 in H119 with both periods suffering from reduced UK government spend. Revenue grew 12% cc to £272m, 1.4% below our £275.9m predicated on a 4,092 Mountie estimate. We reduce FY20E headcount to 4,274 from 4,407, bringing revenues to £282.2m, c.4% below our £295.6m. Net cash of £37m was ahead of our £35.4m.
UK and Ireland. Headcount fell 5% yoy to 1,910 (2,004 in FY18). H119 net adds were 11 with a net 105 loss in H219, although 30 were moved from UK classification to EMEA. Public sector was the reason behind the decline with other sectors growing. We expect a return to solid Mountie growth in FY20E and we understand the year has started strongly. We expect public sector to improve in H2 post the spending review and bedding down of new government department structures. We trim FY20E headcount to 2,000 from 2,184.
North America. Mountie headcount was up 7% yoy to 1,277 vs our 1,296 with net 9 additions in H119 and an improved 72 in H219 from expansion into the current client base, client additions and fewer internalisations. We trim FY20E headcount to 1,397 from 1,416, but expect FY20 to be a good year with some large client internalisations now having mostly worked through.
EMEA. Headcount grew 48% to 240 vs our 217, although this benefited from the 30 Mounties reallocated from being reported under the UK. We have increased FY20E to 280 from 252 to reflect this dynamic.
APAC. Headcount grew 29% to 497 vs our 485 with 51 H119 net adds and 61 in H219. Sydney continues to expand rapidly and we up FY20E to 597 from 555.
Investment view. FDM is making good underlying progress and we expect the model to continue to build through FY20 and beyond as it drives its UK and international expansion. We see this progress combined with an attractive dividend yield supporting the stock.