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15 Feb 2022
Pernod Ricard : High spirits - Sell
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Pernod Ricard : High spirits - Sell
- Published:
15 Feb 2022 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
6 -
The business has recovered strongly and is currently tracking 13% above the pre-COVID level on a constant currency basis. After 17% organic sales growth in H1, management confirmed on the call that H2 organic sales are still likely to be above the 4-7% medium-term guidance (INVe +8%) despite starting to face tough comps related to last year’s re-opening.
The H1 performance is all the more impressive considering that the Global Travel Retail business, roughly 7% of sales, is still 40% below the pre-COVID level. Management expects this area to slowly recover over time, and we think this should flatter top-line growth slightly.
The H2 operating margin is also expected to expand, though not by as much as it did in H1, as investments in A&P will step-up.
Data on the performance around Chinese New Year (China is 10% of sales) will not be available until March, as usual. However, the CEO admitted it “might be a slightly softer start” than last year, which was surprisingly strong.
The company’s balance sheet is in a much stronger position now, with net debt/EBITDA at a respectable 2.4x and the average cost of debt refinanced down to just 2.2%. FCF was +39% in H1 and management increased the FY22 buyback by €250m, to €750m total.
Despite significantly raising our forecasts (FY22E adj EPS is increased 13% and FY23E adj EPS is increased 10%), our DCF still results in a fair value around €150/sh. We apply 23x CY22E PE to arrive at our €180 TP (prev €150); this is a discount to the high 20’s PE of recent years, but is still a premium to the 10 year average of 20.4x NTM PE.