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28 Feb 2020
Phoenix Group Holdings : ReAssure – much to like, much to be done - Buy

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Phoenix Group Holdings : ReAssure – much to like, much to be done - Buy
- Published:
28 Feb 2020 -
Author:
Ben Cohen -
Pages:
13 -
Increase to Own Funds, Solvency lower. Ahead of FY results on 9th March, we update our forecasts for the pending ReAssure acquisition, drawing on data from the January prospectus, on top of December guidance on the announcement. IFRS operating EPS rises, while Own Funds per share also increase, with deal synergies providing incremental benefit over time. Our cash generation forecasts track the guidance given with the deal, with the dividend covered going forward. On the negative side, the acquisition and the decline in government bond yields mean a cut to forecast solvency ratios.
Strategic logic, with further cost potential. We see strong strategic logic in the acquisition of ReAssure, with £800m of cost and capital synergies underpinning the financial logic, for which shareholders will benefit from a 3% increase in the dividend. We see further cost reduction upside when ReAssure is fully integrated, although this is not expected before 2022/23. It is not clear whether this alone would allow a further increase in the dividend, but we see £80m in additional annual synergies as achievable.
Cash generation no longer flat? Modest near-term catalysts. Post deal, the heavier weighting to back-book run-off means Open business growth and BPA cashflows are unlikely to keep cash generation flat over ten years, albeit the annual decline should be modest. Near-term catalysts are likely to be modest, with ReAssure expected to close mid-2020, and with very limited financial or management capacity to pursue additional transactions this year.
Target price raised on higher dividend. Greater detail on additional cost targets and a stronger macro outlook could allow for a lower target dividend yield over time but, for now, we raise our target price for higher DPS on an unchanged 6.25% yield target, a discount to Chesnara and premium to Aviva.