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                    14 Dec 2023 
SThree : A reassuringly robust FY23 - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON), 123 | Hays plc (HAS:LON), 58.0 | PageGroup PLC (PAGE:LON), 235 | Robert Walters Plc (RWA:LON), 148 | SThree plc (STEM:LON), 157    
    
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SThree : A reassuringly robust FY23 - Buy
FDM Group (Holdings) plc (FDM:LON), 123 | Hays plc (HAS:LON), 58.0 | PageGroup PLC (PAGE:LON), 235 | Robert Walters Plc (RWA:LON), 148 | SThree plc (STEM:LON), 157    
    - Published: 
14 Dec 2023  - 
                                            
                                            
                                            Author:
                                                
Michael Donnelly | Tom Callan  - 
                                            
                                            Pages:
                                                
8  - 
                                            
                                         
FY23 in-line. FY23 NFI confirmed at £418.8m, slightly ahead of INVe (£418.0m) with NFI -4% LFL yoy (Contract +1% / Perm -22%). A resilient performance, in our view, especially given the record PY comp and with the FY23 outturn at -3% LFL excl. restructured businesses. We were also encouraged by the sequential improvement QoQ (Q4 -5% vs. Q3 at -7%) and the fact that the c.£184m order book provides visibility of c.4 months of NFI. 
Contract in growth territory yoy. As anticipated, SThree’s unique STEM and Contract focus (c.82% of NFI) was the difference, with Contract +2% (excl. restructured businesses), driven by “robust contract extensions” and with margins holding up well. Engineering stood out at +18%, with Technology also growing at +1%. Geographically, the Netherlands (incl. Spain) and Rest of Europe outperformed at +7%/+3%, offset partially by DACH at -1% (tough PY comp) and the US (-4%). Given the strategic pivot away from Perm (avg. headcount -17%), and despite the sequential QoQ improvement - Perm underperformed Contract with NFI -22% amidst “challenging conditions”.
Forecasts reiterated. As usual, there are no profit metrics disclosed in today’s Q4. With reported NFI in-line with pre-statement INVe, and given we also sit in-line with cons. PBT, we elect to leave our headline P&L forecasts unchanged today, pending incremental colour at the 30-Jan-24 prelims (e.g., visibility on the key Dec/Jan contract extensions period, as well as conversion).
BUY reiterated. Despite having enjoyed a good run the past c.3 months (+c.16%), the shares have been relatively weak YTD (+c.6%), and that is despite SThree having delivered a series of robust performances and, in our view, being strategically well-positioned to take advantage of secular megatrends in STEM, underpinned by material balance sheet strength (M&A and capital return optionality). Applying a c.13x multiple to our unchanged FY24E EPS (in-line with long-run avg. levels) implies an upwardly revised PT of 530p.