In Russian roulette, as in life, we’re often enjoined that: “If at first you don’t succeed, try, try and try again”. Central banks have clearly taken this dictum to heart, and remain highly committed to trying to inject inflation into the global economic system, despite repeated failures in Japan and the West. The immediate impact of the coronavirus pandemic has been deflationary. As a massive economic contraction took place, and an associated output gap opened, demand shortfalls (although buttressed by immediate government support to supply chains) fed through to lowered inflation expectations. However, by mid-summer inflation expectations began to rise for a number of possible reasons. These include the sheer quantum of monetary expansion, the increasing merger of monetary and fiscal policy, an end to the immediate threat from the global USD squeeze of Q1 and a recognition that ultimately productive capacity may be removed through mass corporate insolvencies. With the Bank for International Settlements having highlighted that inflation risks appear elevated in both directions (i.e. uncontrolled inflation or deflation), there clearly exists a need for consideration for the potential impact upon portfolios of the outcome. Many individual commodities which saw the sharpest reductions in price have rapidly rebounded, and their impact upon inflation numbers will have an additional ‘base effect’ kicking in in the coming months (more below). There are also specific dynamics within the agricultural commodities subsector with similar characteristics, and there seems to be the potential for an agricultural commodity price ‘breakout’. This will have significant economic implications, particularly for the emerging market countries which are the biggest producers – and in some cases the biggest consumers – of these commodities. And that is before considering whether this inflationary impulse continues to gather speed. Below we consider the investment implications of the likely course of inflation over the next year and discuss the countries and trusts which might benefit. We ask whether this trend could lead to a rotation in market leadership: China (and particularly Chinese tech) has led EMs this year, but could others be set to take over the reins? We think one potential straw in the wind is that the managers of Monks, an unabashedly growth trust which has invested heavily in tech in recent years, have recently opened up positions in the mining sector, saying it could be an attractive long-term growth opportunity.