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Riders on the storm

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  • 12 May 2021

Riders on the storm


US Solar Fund Plc (USFP:LON), 72.0 | HICL Infrastructure PLC (HICL:LON), 0 | Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG:LON), 0 | NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd (NESF:LON), 0 | M&G Credit Income Investment Trust Plc (MGCI:LON), 94.0 | NB Global Monthly Income Fund Limited Red GBP (NBMI:LON), 82.0 | Greencoat UK Wind Plc (UKW:LON), 0

  • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
    • Thomas McMahon, CFA

    • 7 pages

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The coronavirus pandemic has had a dreadful impact on equity dividends, particularly in the UK market. Between 31 March 2020 and 31 March 2021, UK companies cut their dividends by 41.6% on an underlying basis, according to the latest Link Dividend Monitor. The cuts have continued into 2021, with a 26.7% fall on an underlying basis in Q1. That said, there was a headline increase of 7.9% thanks to the second-highest special dividends reported, thanks to large payouts from Tesco and the rallying mining sector. However, Link’s best-case estimate for 2021 growth is still only 5.6% on an underlying basis. With dividends falling by 44% in 2020 and assuming Link’s growth forecast is on the money, that would leave this year’s underlying dividend payouts c. 41% below the level they entered 2020. On a prospective basis, this would amount to a yield of just 3.3% on the UK market, according to Link’s calculations as of the end of March 2021. In our recent review of the UK equity income sector, we highlighted how UK equity income investment trusts had managed to protect their payouts well during the crisis, and even in some cases grow them, despite this bloodbath amongst the underlying companies. The sector has been rewarded with a narrow discount on the whole. However, the scope for dividend growth is clearly limited, particularly if Link is right and dividends do not return to their pre-crisis levels until 2025. One option for investors is to turn to alternatives to boost their income and perhaps their dividend growth potential. We outline the main options below and ask if the pandemic has impacted dividend potential in alternatives too.

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Riders on the storm


US Solar Fund Plc (USFP:LON), 72.0 | HICL Infrastructure PLC (HICL:LON), 0 | Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG:LON), 0 | NextEnergy Solar Fund Ltd (NESF:LON), 0 | M&G Credit Income Investment Trust Plc (MGCI:LON), 94.0 | NB Global Monthly Income Fund Limited Red GBP (NBMI:LON), 82.0 | Greencoat UK Wind Plc (UKW:LON), 0

  • Published: 12 May 2021
  • Author: Thomas McMahon, CFA
  • Pages: 7
  • Kepler | Trust Intelligence


The coronavirus pandemic has had a dreadful impact on equity dividends, particularly in the UK market. Between 31 March 2020 and 31 March 2021, UK companies cut their dividends by 41.6% on an underlying basis, according to the latest Link Dividend Monitor. The cuts have continued into 2021, with a 26.7% fall on an underlying basis in Q1. That said, there was a headline increase of 7.9% thanks to the second-highest special dividends reported, thanks to large payouts from Tesco and the rallying mining sector. However, Link’s best-case estimate for 2021 growth is still only 5.6% on an underlying basis. With dividends falling by 44% in 2020 and assuming Link’s growth forecast is on the money, that would leave this year’s underlying dividend payouts c. 41% below the level they entered 2020. On a prospective basis, this would amount to a yield of just 3.3% on the UK market, according to Link’s calculations as of the end of March 2021. In our recent review of the UK equity income sector, we highlighted how UK equity income investment trusts had managed to protect their payouts well during the crisis, and even in some cases grow them, despite this bloodbath amongst the underlying companies. The sector has been rewarded with a narrow discount on the whole. However, the scope for dividend growth is clearly limited, particularly if Link is right and dividends do not return to their pre-crisis levels until 2025. One option for investors is to turn to alternatives to boost their income and perhaps their dividend growth potential. We outline the main options below and ask if the pandemic has impacted dividend potential in alternatives too.

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