Research Tree Research Tree Logo

  • Try our Investor Tool
  • Login
  • Sign Up

Research Tree Logo

  • Login
  • Sign Up
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • RNS/News
  • Contact
  • Try our Investor Tool
  • Login
  • Sign Up
  • Providers
  • Companies
⨯
  • Providers
  • Companies
⨯
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • Event Hub
  • RNS/News
  • Short Interest
  • Contact
Research >
What lies beneath

  • 29 Jan 2018

What lies beneath


Avi Global Trust (AGT:LON), 874 | Lazard World Trust Fund (WTR:LON), 0 | Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust (ASL:LON), 1,351 | Temple Bar Investment Trust (TMPL:LON), 996 | Gabelli Value Plus + Trust (GVP:LON), 150

  • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
    • Kepler Partners Research Team

    • 5 pages

Trusts, ETFs & Funds image


 
Trusts, ETFs & Funds image


In a report early last year, we analysed the argument surrounding whether value investing (a style that has significantly underperformed relative to growth investing) was about to make a sustained comeback. Simply put, value investing involves buying shares in companies that the managers believe are ‘cheap’ relative to the wider market and their own histories. Many value managers, however, will only buy ‘cheap’ stocks where they have pinpointed a potential catalyst they believe will lead to share prices increasing (by analysing metrics such as cashflow, leverage, balance sheets and external factors) in order to avoid ‘value traps’ - stocks that are still in a period of decline or worse, are heading for total collapse. Growth investing, again put simply, means buying companies that are displaying above average earnings growth. Most growth managers will follow a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach, which means they don’t mind paying higher than average valuations for a stock if they believe future earnings growth is undervalued by the wider market. In recent times especially, value investing has become synonymous with more cyclical stocks such as mining, energy and banks, while growth investing has meant a focus on more defensive companies (with futures which aren’t dependent on economic growth) such as utilities, telecoms, tobacco and other consumer goods stocks. Those who predicting that value stocks were on the verge of a new era of outperformance were proved wrong (or too early), as they generally underperformed growth over the course of 2017. However, in our report last year (and with the proviso that the past is no guide to future returns), we found that had been a correlation between the relative performance of value versus growth stocks and the trajectory of UK government bond (or gilt) yields, with value generally underperforming when yields fell (or when bond prices rose) and outperforming when yields rose (or when bond prices fell). Government bonds have delivered almost unprecedented risk-adjusted returns over the past three decades due to factors such as credit boom prior to the global financial crisis and ultra-low interest rates over the past 10 years. However, many believed bond yields would rise last year (as they did in 2016) as inflation picked up in the UK following Brexit-induced weakness in sterling, coupled with Donald Trump’s commitment to economic stimulus. However, despite these two strong forces at work, 10-year gilt yields fell from their peak of 1.54% in late January 2017 to 1.26% by the end of the year (representing a fall of c.20%). We don’t claim to be experts in global fixed income markets, but the commonly-held view among those who do, is that bond yields will rise over the coming years (though as we mentioned last year, many have incorrectly called the collapse of the bond market for a number of years now…). While this might not be repeated, and again like last year, our analysis shows that value stocks have historically outperformed growth when bond yields have risen. However, as we highlight in this report, it is surprising how little exposure the ‘average’ UK investor has to “value” as a style, with the large majority of inflows into equity funds heading towards funds with a clear “growth” or “quality” bias. As such, if this long-anticipated revival in value investing does indeed occur – most investors look likely to miss out, or worse, be hit by capital losses.

Sign up for free to access

Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.

Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.


Get Started
Already a member? Log in here

What lies beneath


Avi Global Trust (AGT:LON), 874 | Lazard World Trust Fund (WTR:LON), 0 | Aberforth Smaller Companies Trust (ASL:LON), 1,351 | Temple Bar Investment Trust (TMPL:LON), 996 | Gabelli Value Plus + Trust (GVP:LON), 150

  • Published: 29 Jan 2018
  • Author: Kepler Partners Research Team
  • Pages: 5
  • Kepler | Trust Intelligence


In a report early last year, we analysed the argument surrounding whether value investing (a style that has significantly underperformed relative to growth investing) was about to make a sustained comeback. Simply put, value investing involves buying shares in companies that the managers believe are ‘cheap’ relative to the wider market and their own histories. Many value managers, however, will only buy ‘cheap’ stocks where they have pinpointed a potential catalyst they believe will lead to share prices increasing (by analysing metrics such as cashflow, leverage, balance sheets and external factors) in order to avoid ‘value traps’ - stocks that are still in a period of decline or worse, are heading for total collapse. Growth investing, again put simply, means buying companies that are displaying above average earnings growth. Most growth managers will follow a GARP (growth at a reasonable price) approach, which means they don’t mind paying higher than average valuations for a stock if they believe future earnings growth is undervalued by the wider market. In recent times especially, value investing has become synonymous with more cyclical stocks such as mining, energy and banks, while growth investing has meant a focus on more defensive companies (with futures which aren’t dependent on economic growth) such as utilities, telecoms, tobacco and other consumer goods stocks. Those who predicting that value stocks were on the verge of a new era of outperformance were proved wrong (or too early), as they generally underperformed growth over the course of 2017. However, in our report last year (and with the proviso that the past is no guide to future returns), we found that had been a correlation between the relative performance of value versus growth stocks and the trajectory of UK government bond (or gilt) yields, with value generally underperforming when yields fell (or when bond prices rose) and outperforming when yields rose (or when bond prices fell). Government bonds have delivered almost unprecedented risk-adjusted returns over the past three decades due to factors such as credit boom prior to the global financial crisis and ultra-low interest rates over the past 10 years. However, many believed bond yields would rise last year (as they did in 2016) as inflation picked up in the UK following Brexit-induced weakness in sterling, coupled with Donald Trump’s commitment to economic stimulus. However, despite these two strong forces at work, 10-year gilt yields fell from their peak of 1.54% in late January 2017 to 1.26% by the end of the year (representing a fall of c.20%). We don’t claim to be experts in global fixed income markets, but the commonly-held view among those who do, is that bond yields will rise over the coming years (though as we mentioned last year, many have incorrectly called the collapse of the bond market for a number of years now…). While this might not be repeated, and again like last year, our analysis shows that value stocks have historically outperformed growth when bond yields have risen. However, as we highlight in this report, it is surprising how little exposure the ‘average’ UK investor has to “value” as a style, with the large majority of inflows into equity funds heading towards funds with a clear “growth” or “quality” bias. As such, if this long-anticipated revival in value investing does indeed occur – most investors look likely to miss out, or worse, be hit by capital losses.

More Content

More Content

Eye of the Pfizer

Companies: MIGO MINI BMPG THRG BRSC GPM ASL BRWM

Kepler | Trust Intelligence

Proposed tender offer, changes to dividends and benchmark.

Companies: Lazard World Trust Fund

Stockdale Securities

Double discount on quality-focused portfolio

Companies: Avi Global Trust

QuotedData

New name, proven strategy

Companies: Lazard World Trust Fund

Stockdale Securities

Double discount on quality-focused portfolio

Companies: Avi Global Trust

QuotedData Professional

Useful Links

  • Features
  • Pricing
  • RNS/Newswires Feeds
  • Providers Hub
  • Company Hub

Account

  • Login
  • Free Trial - Join Now
  • Contact
Follow us on Linkedin Follow us on Twitter

Share:

Heap | Mobile and Web Analytics

Copyright © 2021 Research Tree | All Rights Reserved. | Terms of Service and Privacy Policy and Statement on Cookies

Research Tree will never share your details with third parties for marketing purposes. Research Tree distributes research documents that have been produced and approved by Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) Authorised & Regulated firms as well as relevant content from non-authorised sources, who are not regulated but the information is in the public domain. For the avoidance of doubt Research Tree is not giving advice, nor has Research Tree validated any of the information.

Research Tree is an Appointed Representative of Sturgeon Ventures which is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Top
  • Home
  • Features
  • Pricing
  • Event Hub
  • RNS/News
  • Short Interest Tracker
  • Blogs
    • Academy
    • Insights
    • News
    • Research Tree
    • The Naked Fund Manager
  • Ideas & Picks
    • Ideas Hub
    • Stock Pick League
    • Themes & Screens Hub
  • Explore Content
    • Regions
      • UK
      • Rest of EMEA
      • N America
      • APAC
      • LatAm
    • Sectors
      • Automobile Industry
      • Banks
      • Building & Construction
      • Chemicals
      • Discretionary Personal Goods
      • Discretionary Retail
      • Energy
      • Financial Services
      • Food & Drink
      • Food Production
      • Health
      • Household Goods & DIY
      • Industrial Equipment, Goods & Services
      • Insurance & Reinsurance
      • Leisure, Tourism & Travel
      • Media
      • Other
      • Real Estate
      • Resources
      • Staple Retail
      • Technology
      • Telecoms
      • Trusts, ETFs & Funds
      • Utilities
    • Small / Large Cap
      • UK100
      • UK250
      • UK Smallcap
      • UK Other Main Markets
      • Other
    • Private/EIS
      • EIS Single Company
      • EIS/SEIS Funds
      • IHT Products
      • SEIS Single Company
      • VCT Funds
  • Providers
    • Free/Commissioned
      • Align Research
      • BRR Media
      • Capital Access Group
      • Couloir Capital
      • Edison
      • Equity Development
      • eResearch
      • Exane BNP Paribas - Sponsored Research
      • Fidante Partners
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • goetzpartners securities Limited
      • Hardman & Co
      • Independent Investment Research
      • InterAxS Global
      • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
      • London Stock Exchange
      • Mello Events
      • piworld.co.uk
      • Proactive
      • Progressive Equity Research
      • QuotedData
      • RaaS - Research as a Service
      • Radnor Capital Partners
      • Research Tree
      • SEAL Advisors Ltd
      • ShareSoc
      • Trinity Delta
      • Yellowstone Advisory
    • High Net Worth Offering
      • Allenby Capital
      • AlphaValue
      • Alternative Resource Capital
      • Arctic Securities
      • Arden Partners
      • Auctus Advisors
      • Cenkos Securities
      • Couloir Capital
      • Dowgate Capital
      • Exane BNP Paribas - Sponsored Research
      • finnCap
      • First Berlin
      • Hybridan
      • Liberum
      • Longspur Research
      • Louis Capital
      • Medley Global Advisors
      • N+1 Singer
      • Northland Capital Partners
      • QuotedData Professional
      • Shard Capital
      • ShareSoc
      • SP Angel
      • Stanford Capital Partners
      • Stifel FirstEnergy
      • Stockdale Securities
      • Tamesis Partners
      • The Life Sciences Division
      • VSA Capital
      • WHIreland
      • Whitman Howard
      • Yellowstone Advisory
      • Zeus Capital
    • Institutional Offering
      • Align Research
      • Allenby Capital
      • AlphaValue
      • Alternative Resource Capital
      • Arctic Securities
      • Arden Partners
      • Auctus Advisors
      • BRR Media
      • Bryan, Garnier & Co
      • Capital Access Group
      • Cenkos Securities
      • Couloir Capital
      • Dowgate Capital
      • Edison
      • Equity Development
      • eResearch
      • Exane BNP Paribas
      • Exane BNP Paribas - Sponsored Research
      • Fidante Partners
      • finnCap
      • First Berlin
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • goetzpartners securities Limited
      • Hardman & Co
      • Hybridan
      • Independent Investment Research
      • InterAxS Global
      • Kepler | Absolute Hedge
      • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
      • Liberum
      • London Stock Exchange
      • Longspur Research
      • Mello Events
      • N+1 Singer
      • Northland Capital Partners
      • Numis
      • Peel Hunt
      • piworld.co.uk
      • Proactive
      • Progressive Equity Research
      • QuotedData
      • RaaS - Research as a Service
      • Radnor Capital Partners
      • Research Tree
      • SEAL Advisors Ltd
      • Shard Capital
      • ShareSoc
      • Shore Capital
      • SP Angel
      • Stanford Capital Partners
      • Stifel
      • Stifel FirstEnergy
      • Stockdale Securities
      • Tamesis Partners
      • The Life Sciences Division
      • Trinity Delta
      • VSA Capital
      • WHIreland
      • Whitman Howard
      • Yellowstone Advisory
      • Zeus Capital
    • Video/Audio Interviews
      • BRR Media
      • Capital Access Group
      • Couloir Capital
      • Edison
      • Equity Development
      • Five Minute Pitch TV
      • piworld.co.uk
      • Proactive
      • Research Tree
      • Yellowstone Advisory
    • Event Providers
      • Capital Access Group
      • Cenkos Securities
      • Equity Development
      • Hardman & Co
      • InterAxS Global
      • Kepler | Trust Intelligence
      • London Stock Exchange
      • Mello Events
      • piworld.co.uk
      • QuotedData
      • ShareSoc
      • VSA Capital
      • Yellowstone Advisory
  • Contact
  • Sign Up
  • Sign In