Your author had a dentist appointment booked for the day after dentists were ordered to stop work in March. Luckily he was able to finally have the work done two weeks ago, with a £38 surcharge for PPE. Meanwhile anyone celebrating the lifting of lockdown with a haircut has probably noticed a similar price increase, as companies pass on the extra costs they have incurred in complying with the new regulations. We suspect that many people are underestimating the inflation that is coming down the tracks, and that we could well see a period of stagflation as the economic fallout from the pandemic starts to bite. Another early sign of this inflation has come through in the numbers reported by the supermarkets for the lockdown period. Sainsbury’s, for example, saw sales grow by 10.5% in the quarter to June but expects full year profits to be flat, despite the tax breaks allowed by the government. Tesco and Morrisons have also reported that they expect no gain to their bottom line this year, despite rising sales. The chief reason is the impact of social distancing and other health regulations, which have caused a huge spike in the cost of production and are raising inflation for consumers too.
12 Jul 2020
Why stagflation is likely and how to protect your portfolio from it
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Why stagflation is likely and how to protect your portfolio from it
- Published:
12 Jul 2020 -
Author:
Thomas McMahon, CFA -
Pages:
5 -
Your author had a dentist appointment booked for the day after dentists were ordered to stop work in March. Luckily he was able to finally have the work done two weeks ago, with a £38 surcharge for PPE. Meanwhile anyone celebrating the lifting of lockdown with a haircut has probably noticed a similar price increase, as companies pass on the extra costs they have incurred in complying with the new regulations. We suspect that many people are underestimating the inflation that is coming down the tracks, and that we could well see a period of stagflation as the economic fallout from the pandemic starts to bite. Another early sign of this inflation has come through in the numbers reported by the supermarkets for the lockdown period. Sainsbury’s, for example, saw sales grow by 10.5% in the quarter to June but expects full year profits to be flat, despite the tax breaks allowed by the government. Tesco and Morrisons have also reported that they expect no gain to their bottom line this year, despite rising sales. The chief reason is the impact of social distancing and other health regulations, which have caused a huge spike in the cost of production and are raising inflation for consumers too.