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COVID-19. Week 4 - settling down into a new 'normality'?

  • 26 Mar 2020

COVID-19. Week 4 - settling down into a new 'normality'?


Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON), 243 | Wm Morrison Supermarkets plc (MRW:LON), 182 | J Sainsbury plc (SBRY:LON), 239 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,916 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 139

  • Shore Capital
    • Clive Black

    • 9 pages

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COVID-19. Week 4 - settling down into a new 'normality'?


Tesco PLC (TSCO:LON), 243 | Wm Morrison Supermarkets plc (MRW:LON), 182 | J Sainsbury plc (SBRY:LON), 239 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,916 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 139

  • Published: 26 Mar 2020
  • Author: Clive Black
  • Pages: 9
  • Shore Capital


Last week, we wrote of a potential shift of food demand in the UK from the out of home Food & Beverage sector to Retail. By Friday eve the Prime Minister had closed all the pubs with a lockdown of sorts announced on Monday. The British food system is now in a new norm, a temporary one the length of which will be determined by the trajectory of the invisible Coronavirus. In aggregate the industry has done wonders to meet the demand challenges with a number of organisations probably ‘butter side’ up from a financial perspective. Whilst so, it is far from universal with F&B taking a battering and food to-go, food for now and food on the move (note Gregg’s close down) notably down. With lots of uncertainty about how Easter will pan-out and higher operating costs, we would say that four weeks in from a financial perspective the food system is '2-1' up (maybe even an away goal) but no more. The length of the game is uncertain. Whilst the earnings impact remains to be seen, we highlight the probable notable boosts in time to cash flow from operations from these negative working capital business models, although we are keeping an eye on fuel impact. Improved liquidity and solvency is enough for us to reiterate our positivity on Morrison, Sainsbury and Tesco.

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