We raise our price target to $36 (from $33) as we lift our 2025-2027 cash flow forecasts on stabilizing U.S. rig count and expected benefits from ongoing cost cuts, new products and strong backlog.
Despite weakening WTI prices, average U.S. rig count (through December 12) is higher in 4Q:25 (548) than 3Q:25 (540), according to Baker Hughes, with a far less pronounced year-end slowdown expected than the previous two years.
While we model global oil oversupply pressuring domestic rig count in 1H:26, we expect FET to expand its international revenue and benefit from its strength in subsea.
Book:bill has exceeded 1.0x for three consecutive quarters, with backlog reaching its highest level in a decade at the end of 3Q:25.
We project improving rig count beginning in 2H:26, underpinned by positive natural gas fundamentals.
We model annual free cash flow in excess of $50 million through 2027, based on capex of less than $10 million annually, supporting continued share repurchases.
We model more than $30 million in annual repurchases in 2025-2026 as part of the company's $75 million share repurchase authorization.
FET has already repurchased more than $25 million of shares through October and reduced debt by almost $50 million through 3Q:25, despite challenging industry conditions.
Our raised $36 price target (from $33) is based on 7x our average 2026-2027 FCF per share estimate of $5.14 (previously 7x our former 2026 FCF per share forecast of $4.66).
17 Dec 2025
2026 Outlook: Raise Price Target To $36 (From $33) As We Lift Our 2025-2027 Cash Flow Forecasts Supported By U.S. Rig Count Stabilization, Ongoing Cost Cuts And Strong Backlog
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2026 Outlook: Raise Price Target To $36 (From $33) As We Lift Our 2025-2027 Cash Flow Forecasts Supported By U.S. Rig Count Stabilization, Ongoing Cost Cuts And Strong Backlog
- Published:
17 Dec 2025 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We raise our price target to $36 (from $33) as we lift our 2025-2027 cash flow forecasts on stabilizing U.S. rig count and expected benefits from ongoing cost cuts, new products and strong backlog.
Despite weakening WTI prices, average U.S. rig count (through December 12) is higher in 4Q:25 (548) than 3Q:25 (540), according to Baker Hughes, with a far less pronounced year-end slowdown expected than the previous two years.
While we model global oil oversupply pressuring domestic rig count in 1H:26, we expect FET to expand its international revenue and benefit from its strength in subsea.
Book:bill has exceeded 1.0x for three consecutive quarters, with backlog reaching its highest level in a decade at the end of 3Q:25.
We project improving rig count beginning in 2H:26, underpinned by positive natural gas fundamentals.
We model annual free cash flow in excess of $50 million through 2027, based on capex of less than $10 million annually, supporting continued share repurchases.
We model more than $30 million in annual repurchases in 2025-2026 as part of the company's $75 million share repurchase authorization.
FET has already repurchased more than $25 million of shares through October and reduced debt by almost $50 million through 3Q:25, despite challenging industry conditions.
Our raised $36 price target (from $33) is based on 7x our average 2026-2027 FCF per share estimate of $5.14 (previously 7x our former 2026 FCF per share forecast of $4.66).