We expect 2026 will be highlighted by new mobile camp project wins as the Canadian government continues to fast track large-scale infrastructure projects, while North American data center construction will likely drive housing demand.
Civeo has around 3,500 rooms available for deployment, with no capex attached, to meet expected burgeoning demand through the end of the decade.
We model no mobile camp activity in 2026 and only one project in 2027, providing significant upside to our estimates, based on the potential timing of final investment decisions (FIDs).
From 2021-2023, Civeo averaged $75 million annually from mobile camp activity, which included Coastal GasLink (CGL) construction.
We project year-over-year revenue growth and margin improvement in 4Q:25, benefiting from four additional Australian villages and Canadian cost reductions.
However, we trim our 2026 estimates as we model Canadian lodge occupancies to be flat to modestly lower on continued soft turnaround activity.
We forecast free cash flow (FCF) per share expanding to $3.21 (previously $3.84) in 2026 and $4.99 (previously $4.92) in 2026 from $0.62 in 2025.
We anticipate rising cash flow supports continued share repurchases. Civeo repurchased about $50 million of shares through the first three quarters of 2025.
Our $28 price target is based on about 7x our revised average 2026-2027 FCFPS estimate of $4.10 (previously 7x our former 2026 FCFPS forecast of $3.84). Our moderate risk rating is supported by current limited capex demands and net leverage under 2.5x at the end of 3Q:25.
03 Feb 2026
Expect Civeo Remains Well Positioned To Capture Multiyear Mobile Camp Projects, But Trim Our 2026 Forecast On Continued Soft Canadian Turnaround Activity; Maintain $28 Price Target
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Expect Civeo Remains Well Positioned To Capture Multiyear Mobile Camp Projects, But Trim Our 2026 Forecast On Continued Soft Canadian Turnaround Activity; Maintain $28 Price Target
- Published:
03 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We expect 2026 will be highlighted by new mobile camp project wins as the Canadian government continues to fast track large-scale infrastructure projects, while North American data center construction will likely drive housing demand.
Civeo has around 3,500 rooms available for deployment, with no capex attached, to meet expected burgeoning demand through the end of the decade.
We model no mobile camp activity in 2026 and only one project in 2027, providing significant upside to our estimates, based on the potential timing of final investment decisions (FIDs).
From 2021-2023, Civeo averaged $75 million annually from mobile camp activity, which included Coastal GasLink (CGL) construction.
We project year-over-year revenue growth and margin improvement in 4Q:25, benefiting from four additional Australian villages and Canadian cost reductions.
However, we trim our 2026 estimates as we model Canadian lodge occupancies to be flat to modestly lower on continued soft turnaround activity.
We forecast free cash flow (FCF) per share expanding to $3.21 (previously $3.84) in 2026 and $4.99 (previously $4.92) in 2026 from $0.62 in 2025.
We anticipate rising cash flow supports continued share repurchases. Civeo repurchased about $50 million of shares through the first three quarters of 2025.
Our $28 price target is based on about 7x our revised average 2026-2027 FCFPS estimate of $4.10 (previously 7x our former 2026 FCFPS forecast of $3.84). Our moderate risk rating is supported by current limited capex demands and net leverage under 2.5x at the end of 3Q:25.