We model a mid-single digit sequential revenue decline in 4Q:25 due to a further modest decrease in Permian drilling and Rockies seasonality, with relatively stable margins, essentially in line with guidance.
While U.S. rig count largely stabilized in September, according to Baker Hughes, completion activity slowed in December.
We adjust the cadence of our 2026 estimates to reflect the slow start to the year for completions, exacerbated by challenging January weather, with expected typical sequential improvement in 2Q:26 and 3Q:26.
We anticipate KLX will benefit from cost outs and increasing efficiencies, supporting margins in 2026.
We also forecast growing activity in natural gas basins in 2026-2027, driven by increasing LNG export capacity and higher power consumption, underpinned by data center expansion.
KLX's Northeast/Mid-Con (which includes KLX's dry gas exposure) margins already reached their highest level in three years in 3Q:25, while dry gas revenue increased 25% and 15% sequentially in 2Q:25 and 3Q:25, respectively.
We model minimal free cash flow next year and rising to $14 million ($0.72 per share) in 2027 on recovering U.S. drilling and completion activity, partially offset by higher capex to meet rising demand.
Our $4 price target is based on 6x our unchanged 2027 FCF per share estimate of $0.72. The stable balance sheet and improving cash flow support our moderate risk rating.
13 Feb 2026
Forecast Improving Margins In 2026-2027 Driven By Stronger Gas Basin Activity And Increased Efficiencies; Project A Modest Sequential Revenue Decline In 4Q:25; Maintain $4 Price Target
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Forecast Improving Margins In 2026-2027 Driven By Stronger Gas Basin Activity And Increased Efficiencies; Project A Modest Sequential Revenue Decline In 4Q:25; Maintain $4 Price Target
- Published:
13 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We model a mid-single digit sequential revenue decline in 4Q:25 due to a further modest decrease in Permian drilling and Rockies seasonality, with relatively stable margins, essentially in line with guidance.
While U.S. rig count largely stabilized in September, according to Baker Hughes, completion activity slowed in December.
We adjust the cadence of our 2026 estimates to reflect the slow start to the year for completions, exacerbated by challenging January weather, with expected typical sequential improvement in 2Q:26 and 3Q:26.
We anticipate KLX will benefit from cost outs and increasing efficiencies, supporting margins in 2026.
We also forecast growing activity in natural gas basins in 2026-2027, driven by increasing LNG export capacity and higher power consumption, underpinned by data center expansion.
KLX's Northeast/Mid-Con (which includes KLX's dry gas exposure) margins already reached their highest level in three years in 3Q:25, while dry gas revenue increased 25% and 15% sequentially in 2Q:25 and 3Q:25, respectively.
We model minimal free cash flow next year and rising to $14 million ($0.72 per share) in 2027 on recovering U.S. drilling and completion activity, partially offset by higher capex to meet rising demand.
Our $4 price target is based on 6x our unchanged 2027 FCF per share estimate of $0.72. The stable balance sheet and improving cash flow support our moderate risk rating.