On May 14, 2026, Itafos announced an amendment to its long-term sulfuric acid supply agreement with Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO; NC). The amendment changes the reference index price from the Vancouver Index to the Tampa Index effective May 1, 2026 through December 31, 2029. The amendment also establishes an adjusted sulfuric acid price to address the significant input cost volatility that has pressured the business and the broader phosphate industry. The amended agreement also includes modifications around delivered volumes to provide greater flexibility for incremental supply.
We view the amended agreement as a meaningful positive for Itafos' near-term operating and financial profile. It directly addresses the affordability side of the input cost challenge that was the primary driver of margin compression in 1Q:26, while preserving the supply availability that has allowed Conda to continue running at or above nameplate capacity throughout the current period of industry-wide disruption.
Following our meeting with Itafos management, we are raising our 2Q:26 EPS estimate to $0.03 from $0.01 and our full year 2026 EPS estimate to $0.22 from $0.19. Our 2H:26 and 2027 estimates remain unchanged at this time.
We maintain our price target on Itafos shares at $4, based on an intact 11x multiple applied to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.37. We maintain our moderate risk rating, reflecting the company's concentrated asset base, exposure to commodity pricing, and the ongoing execution requirements at Arraias, which are balanced by Conda's long operating record, increasing activity in Brazil, and favorable long-term phosphate fundamentals.
21 May 2026
Itafos And Rio Tinto Amend Sulfuric Acid Supply Agreement; Estimates Raised As Near-Term Cost Structure Improves; Maintain $4 Price Target
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Itafos And Rio Tinto Amend Sulfuric Acid Supply Agreement; Estimates Raised As Near-Term Cost Structure Improves; Maintain $4 Price Target
- Published:
21 May 2026 -
Author:
Daniel Harriman -
Pages:
10 -
On May 14, 2026, Itafos announced an amendment to its long-term sulfuric acid supply agreement with Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO; NC). The amendment changes the reference index price from the Vancouver Index to the Tampa Index effective May 1, 2026 through December 31, 2029. The amendment also establishes an adjusted sulfuric acid price to address the significant input cost volatility that has pressured the business and the broader phosphate industry. The amended agreement also includes modifications around delivered volumes to provide greater flexibility for incremental supply.
We view the amended agreement as a meaningful positive for Itafos' near-term operating and financial profile. It directly addresses the affordability side of the input cost challenge that was the primary driver of margin compression in 1Q:26, while preserving the supply availability that has allowed Conda to continue running at or above nameplate capacity throughout the current period of industry-wide disruption.
Following our meeting with Itafos management, we are raising our 2Q:26 EPS estimate to $0.03 from $0.01 and our full year 2026 EPS estimate to $0.22 from $0.19. Our 2H:26 and 2027 estimates remain unchanged at this time.
We maintain our price target on Itafos shares at $4, based on an intact 11x multiple applied to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.37. We maintain our moderate risk rating, reflecting the company's concentrated asset base, exposure to commodity pricing, and the ongoing execution requirements at Arraias, which are balanced by Conda's long operating record, increasing activity in Brazil, and favorable long-term phosphate fundamentals.