We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Betterware de Mexico, but lowering our 2025 and 2026 projections after the company reported lower than expected 1Q25 (March) results and lowered the dividend rate. 1Q faced the toughest FX comparisons, which were further exacerbated by weakness in the Mexican consumer and the company's decision to raise prices at the Betterware division. That said, management still reiterated 2024 revenue and EBITDA guidance. As such, we are further back-end weighting our projections (FX comparisons materially ease in 2H) and conservatively tweaking our 2025 projections below management guidance. We are also reducing our 2026 projections. Despite the 1Q miss, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $22.50 price target, as we believe 1Q will prove to be the nadir for the company and even with our lower projection, BWMX trades at 5X our 2026 EPS with a 10%+ dividend yield.

25 Apr 2025
BWMX: 1Q Review: FX, Uncertainty Mar 1Q; Remain Resolute; Reiterate Buy

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BWMX: 1Q Review: FX, Uncertainty Mar 1Q; Remain Resolute; Reiterate Buy
Medifast (MED:NYSE), 0 | Medifast, Inc. (MED:NYS), 0 | Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (BWMX:NYS), 0 | DD3 Acquisition Corp (DDMX:NYSE), 0 | Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS:NYSE), 0 | Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. Class A (NUS:NYS), 0
- Published:
25 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Eric Beder -
Pages:
8 -
We are reiterating our Buy rating and price target for Betterware de Mexico, but lowering our 2025 and 2026 projections after the company reported lower than expected 1Q25 (March) results and lowered the dividend rate. 1Q faced the toughest FX comparisons, which were further exacerbated by weakness in the Mexican consumer and the company's decision to raise prices at the Betterware division. That said, management still reiterated 2024 revenue and EBITDA guidance. As such, we are further back-end weighting our projections (FX comparisons materially ease in 2H) and conservatively tweaking our 2025 projections below management guidance. We are also reducing our 2026 projections. Despite the 1Q miss, we are reiterating our Buy rating and $22.50 price target, as we believe 1Q will prove to be the nadir for the company and even with our lower projection, BWMX trades at 5X our 2026 EPS with a 10%+ dividend yield.