We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 3Q25 (September) results after the close on Thursday. While our projections for 3Q YoY revenue declines of over 30% and EBITDA margin squeeze of 850 basis points (to
14.6%) may be somewhat of a "doomsday" scenario, we believe, even with some upside, the tariff mayhem in 2Q, and the continuing strategic shifts as licensees, retailers and toy manufacturers all try and figure out what is going to be the "new normal" in the domestic toy marketplace, will lead to material YoY declines. Further, we believe, especially after commentary by Mattel management in their 3Q conference call, that the cornerstone of JAKKS Pacific business model, the freight on board ("FOB") production/shipping method, will be a near term drag, but also serve as a de-risker to preserve the company's cash flow and longer-term viability. As such, we believe, as the company moves further from the somewhat bizarre (and harmful) events of 2025, they can return to a more compelling (and consistent) business model. As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $30 price target for JAKK
23 Oct 2025
JAKK: 3Q Preview: Feeling the Pain While Derisking Business Model; Reit Buy, PT
Funko Inc (FNKO:NYSE), 0 | Funko, Inc. Class A (FNKO:NAS), 0 | HASBRO (HAS:NYSE), 0 | Hasbro, Inc. (HAS:NAS), 0 | JAKKS PACIFIC (JAKK:NYSE), 0 | JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK:NAS), 0 | MATTEL (MAT:NYSE), 0 | Mattel, Inc. (MAT:NAS), 0 | Spin Master Corp (TOY:TSE), 0 | Walt Disney Co (DIS:NYSE), 0 | Walt Disney Company (DIS:NYS), 0
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JAKK: 3Q Preview: Feeling the Pain While Derisking Business Model; Reit Buy, PT
Funko Inc (FNKO:NYSE), 0 | Funko, Inc. Class A (FNKO:NAS), 0 | HASBRO (HAS:NYSE), 0 | Hasbro, Inc. (HAS:NAS), 0 | JAKKS PACIFIC (JAKK:NYSE), 0 | JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK:NAS), 0 | MATTEL (MAT:NYSE), 0 | Mattel, Inc. (MAT:NAS), 0 | Spin Master Corp (TOY:TSE), 0 | Walt Disney Co (DIS:NYSE), 0 | Walt Disney Company (DIS:NYS), 0
- Published:
23 Oct 2025 -
Author:
Eric Beder -
Pages:
4 -
We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 3Q25 (September) results after the close on Thursday. While our projections for 3Q YoY revenue declines of over 30% and EBITDA margin squeeze of 850 basis points (to
14.6%) may be somewhat of a "doomsday" scenario, we believe, even with some upside, the tariff mayhem in 2Q, and the continuing strategic shifts as licensees, retailers and toy manufacturers all try and figure out what is going to be the "new normal" in the domestic toy marketplace, will lead to material YoY declines. Further, we believe, especially after commentary by Mattel management in their 3Q conference call, that the cornerstone of JAKKS Pacific business model, the freight on board ("FOB") production/shipping method, will be a near term drag, but also serve as a de-risker to preserve the company's cash flow and longer-term viability. As such, we believe, as the company moves further from the somewhat bizarre (and harmful) events of 2025, they can return to a more compelling (and consistent) business model. As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $30 price target for JAKK