We are lowering our FY25 projections and price target for Vince Holding ahead of the company reporting 4QFY24 (January) results next Friday. While we love the company's product direction, material returns from further expansion in men's and accessories, ability to open new stores in key domestic and international arenas and the potential to add more wholesale relationships, and believe new management, under CEO Brendan Hoffman, is highly motivated to expand the brand and reach of Vince, we believe the company, with 79% of goods purchased from China in FY23, will be materially impacted in the near term by the current tariff regime, especially as they pivot in FY25. As such, we believe the material turn in earnings we previously projected will now be shifted into FY26, and we are lowering our FY25 EPS from $0.55 to a loss per share of $0.08 and cutting our VNCE price target to $4 (from $6). Again, these cuts have nothing to do with what we are seeing operationally and in the company's stores and with wholesale partners, but are fully a function of our near-term China tariff worries.

25 Apr 2025
VNCE: 4Q Preview; Being Realistic on Tariffs; Reit. Buy, Lowering PT & Estimate
Vince Holding Corp (VNCE:NYSE), 0 | Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE:NYS), 0 | PVH (PVH:NYSE), 0 | PVH Corp. (PVH:NYS), 0 | Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF:NYSE), 0 | Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A (ANF:NYS), 0 | American Eagle Outfitters (AEO:NYSE), 0 | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO:NYS), 0 | Gap (GPS:NYSE), 0 | Guess? (GES:NYSE), 0 | Guess?, Inc. (GES:NYS), 0 | Inditex (ITX:BME), 0 | Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A. (ITX:MCE), 0 | Ralph Lauren (RL:NYSE), 0 | Ralph Lauren Corporation Class A (RL:NYS), 0 | URBAN OUTFITTERS (URBN:NYSE), 0 | Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN:NAS), 0

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VNCE: 4Q Preview; Being Realistic on Tariffs; Reit. Buy, Lowering PT & Estimate
Vince Holding Corp (VNCE:NYSE), 0 | Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE:NYS), 0 | PVH (PVH:NYSE), 0 | PVH Corp. (PVH:NYS), 0 | Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF:NYSE), 0 | Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A (ANF:NYS), 0 | American Eagle Outfitters (AEO:NYSE), 0 | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO:NYS), 0 | Gap (GPS:NYSE), 0 | Guess? (GES:NYSE), 0 | Guess?, Inc. (GES:NYS), 0 | Inditex (ITX:BME), 0 | Industria de Diseno Textil, S.A. (ITX:MCE), 0 | Ralph Lauren (RL:NYSE), 0 | Ralph Lauren Corporation Class A (RL:NYS), 0 | URBAN OUTFITTERS (URBN:NYSE), 0 | Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN:NAS), 0
- Published:
25 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Eric Beder -
Pages:
4 -
We are lowering our FY25 projections and price target for Vince Holding ahead of the company reporting 4QFY24 (January) results next Friday. While we love the company's product direction, material returns from further expansion in men's and accessories, ability to open new stores in key domestic and international arenas and the potential to add more wholesale relationships, and believe new management, under CEO Brendan Hoffman, is highly motivated to expand the brand and reach of Vince, we believe the company, with 79% of goods purchased from China in FY23, will be materially impacted in the near term by the current tariff regime, especially as they pivot in FY25. As such, we believe the material turn in earnings we previously projected will now be shifted into FY26, and we are lowering our FY25 EPS from $0.55 to a loss per share of $0.08 and cutting our VNCE price target to $4 (from $6). Again, these cuts have nothing to do with what we are seeing operationally and in the company's stores and with wholesale partners, but are fully a function of our near-term China tariff worries.