Sibanye Stillwater and the United Steelworkers Union have filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions against Russian unwrought palladium imports. An initial CVD determination is due in December 2025, and if duties apply to Russian imports, it could place upward pressure on US palladium prices.Russian unwrought palladium imports accounted for 40% of US palladium imports in 2024, but only 20% of estimated domestic demand. From a supply perspective, a recovery in domestic US palladium production and re-routing of international trade routes should allow the displacement of most of Russian palladium imports. However, this may be a multi-year effort with a potential for market tightness in the US to lead to higher prices whilst this transition occurs.Notably, palladium prices have already increased by 25% since the petition filings with a marked acceleration following the release of the US Geological Survey’s report assessing commodity supply chain disruptions, in combination with a broader rally in precious metals within a ‘debasement’ trade.Source: UN Comtrade, Metals Focus, WPIC research