The dollar is drifting, not breaking. With the Fed effectively anchoring expectations and traditional macro signals losing clarity, USD weakness shows up slowly and inconsistently, mostly through carry rather than stress. At the same time, the US government is quietly extending its balance sheet into the private sector by taking equity-linked stakes in strategic industries, creating a de facto “state put” that lowers downside risk and embeds a policy premium into select equities. The result is a two-speed regime: the dollar grinds lower in calm conditions but retains its balance-sheet strength in periods of stress, while capital increasingly prices policy support alongside fundamentals.
