Key 2Q25 takeaways include: 1) loan origination volumes remain strong, with favorable lead indicators around steady demand trends, increasing throughput from the company's pass-through partnership with Ally Financial, improving funding rates, and as newer salespeople continue to season 2) CPSS's ABS volumes have remained consistently strong ($400+ million for each of the last five securitizations), while related cost of funds have continued to trend lower - a powerful combination from an earnings power perspective 3) we look for NCOs to continue to trend lower reflecting responsible underwriting, portfolio remixing, and improving recovery rates and 4) while we prefer to err on the side of caution, we note our 2026 EPS forecast jumps from $1.85 to $3.17 (70%+ accretion) if we layer in a 4.5% cost of funds (consistent with the company's long-term average) for next year. Granted, lower interest expenses will take time to flow through the P&L, though we think our back-of-the-envelope math reinforces the considerable leverage in the model, as interest expense normalizes.

12 Aug 2025
CPSS: 2Q25 Earnings Review - EPS Miss on Higher Interest Expense Still Plenty of Leverage in the Model

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CPSS: 2Q25 Earnings Review - EPS Miss on Higher Interest Expense Still Plenty of Leverage in the Model
- Published:
12 Aug 2025 -
Author:
Michael Kim -
Pages:
11 -
Key 2Q25 takeaways include: 1) loan origination volumes remain strong, with favorable lead indicators around steady demand trends, increasing throughput from the company's pass-through partnership with Ally Financial, improving funding rates, and as newer salespeople continue to season 2) CPSS's ABS volumes have remained consistently strong ($400+ million for each of the last five securitizations), while related cost of funds have continued to trend lower - a powerful combination from an earnings power perspective 3) we look for NCOs to continue to trend lower reflecting responsible underwriting, portfolio remixing, and improving recovery rates and 4) while we prefer to err on the side of caution, we note our 2026 EPS forecast jumps from $1.85 to $3.17 (70%+ accretion) if we layer in a 4.5% cost of funds (consistent with the company's long-term average) for next year. Granted, lower interest expenses will take time to flow through the P&L, though we think our back-of-the-envelope math reinforces the considerable leverage in the model, as interest expense normalizes.