Auctus on Friday - 03/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN) C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: Good well results in Colombia – The RCE-3 well flowed naturally at rates equivalent to 2,000 bbl/d gross for four hours after unloading kill fluid. Over the last 24 hours, the well has produced at a rate of 968 bbl/d with 0% water cut. This is a very good result and compares with expectations of 600-800 bbl/d. The fact there is no water being produced at that the well i

Q4 profits drained by weak chemicals, gas trading

Softening market environment, inventory effects, and operational issues hamstrung the operating results in the chemicals business, dropping 73% in Q4 FY2022 on a quarterly basis. The record annual profits and operating cash flow, however, enabled OMV to announce a record high dividend in the company’s history to maintain investor confidence and benefit from the all-time-high results. After a turbulent year, FY2023 should stage another similar show across businesses.

Auctus on Friday - 03/02/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: On track for a very busy 2023 – Arrow is about to embark on a 10 well drilling programme that could add between 2,800 and 4,800 boe/d net production (before decline and in a success case) to the existing constrained production base of ~1,800 boe/d. Over January, production was ~1,800 boe/d with short term outages due to weather at Ombu and Pepper. This compares with produc

Auctus on Friday - 13/01/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: New wells deliver flow rates above expectations – The three new Sunburst wells (Gemini #10, #11 and #12) drilled in 4Q22 are now on production and on average are achieving IP30 rates 35% higher than forecast. The three wells are currently producing 420 boe/d gross (370 boe/d net). This compares with IP30 production of 120 boe/d gross for a type well. The Pisces #6 and #7 wells

Getting a strong shareholder with ADNOC

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s acquisition of Mubadala Investment’s 24.9% stake in OMV could bring valuable opportunities for OMV as the two companies have benefited from joint investments in chemicals as well as upstream oil and gas production and have common goals to expand valuable chemicals investments.

E&P to the rescue of an eventful Q3, special dividend to protect against downside

OMV delivered two positive surprises in the Q3: a good consensus beat and an attractive special dividend of €2.25 per share for the 2022 financial year to close the pay-out gap with its peers. We expect this generous dividend policy to protect the shares from downside pressure. However for the stock to remain attractive for next year, a margin improvement will be key.

Auctus on Friday - 28/10/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU) C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Good production rate at Anshof. Busy months ahead – Commercial production at Anshof-3 has started at a stable rate of 100 bbl/d (80 bbl/d net to ADX). This increases overall production by approximately 30% to >350 boe/d. The well is producing above expectations but is constrained by trucking and storage capacity. Production from Anshof-3 could increase in the future (the well wa

AXL LN/CN, EGY US/LN, PTAL LN/TAL CN, BLOE LN, ECHO LN, ENW LN, EOG LN, GTE LN/CN, I3E LN, JSE LN, OMV AG, PNOR NO, PXT CN, REP SM, TAO CN, TXP LN

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN) C; Target price of £0.45 per share: Gearing up for a busy programme – Current production is ~1,500 boe/d (in line with expectations). Gross production at RCE-2 is holding up very well with no decline since August (October: 1,100 bbl/d, August: 1,080 bbl/d). Gross production from RCS-1 stands at 340 bbl/d (380 bbl/d in August). A work-over rig is expected to arrive at the RCE field by the end of this week.

OMV refining and petrochemical margins suffer in Q3, E&P supports operating profits

While incidents and maintenance hit the refining segments hard in Q3, chemical margins suffered from mounting recession concerns and falling demand. Looking ahead, there could be a silver lining for the refining business in Q4, but hardly for chemicals. E&P remains a solid profit maker, but this could change in H2 FY2023 were recession to trigger a major drop in oil and gas prices

Auctus on Friday - 29/07/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: No surprise in the 2Q22 update – 2Q22 production was 3,839 boe/d. While this is lower that the initial guidance provided by the company, this is higher than we expected (3.7 mboe/d) following the announcement in early July of low production in June due to unexpected weather and maintenance issues. As announced in early July, production is back to 4.1 mboe/d. 3Q22 production gui

Q2: quarterly growth despite headwinds

Good results, above consensus, despite the deconsolidation of Russia and low refining throughput. A positive surprise was Gas & Power Eastern Europe, with an adj. EBIT of €167m vs €14m last year, thanks to high gas and power prices (Romania). In Exploration & Production, adj. EBIT of €2bn, 70% of OMV’s results, -9% qoq, due to lower production (-25% qoq, 345 kboed), as Russia is now out and offset by higher realization prices (oil +18% qoq, gas +49% qoq).

Auctus on Friday - 08/07/2021

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C; Target price of A$0.70: Production expected to bounce back in 3Q22 – June production was impacted by the gas processor’s scheduled plant turn-around in Thorsby that resulted in production being reduced by 625 boe/d for seven days. This work was anticipated and is included in the company’s budget and production guidance. At Brooks, the gas compressor at the 2-29 battery went down on 24 June. The compressor was r

Q1: strong results, deconsolidating Russia

The results were above consensus with an adj. EBIT of €2.66bn (+33% qoq) and driven by higher oil & gas prices. The adj. net income was flat qoq at €1bn, on a higher tax rate (46% vs 36% in Q4) and explained by the higher earnings in upstream. Russia is no longer consolidated, which we view as positive as it will allow the market to look at OMV’s strong fundamentals ex-Yuzhno Russkoye.

Auctus on Friday - 29/04/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.060 per share: Flow rate at the top end of expectations at important appraisal well - The Anshof-3 well flowed ~75 bbl/d of light oil (and no water) on test from the Eocene reservoir. This has positive implications for production, reserves and the upside case. The flow rate was at the upper end of expectations (40-80 bbl/d). The well has not been acidized yet which could boost production rate b

Auctus on Friday - 08/04/2022

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Looking at E&P Free Cash Flow - While companies still carry hedges contracted at lower prices, we estimate our producer universe will generate ~25% FCF yield (defined as FCF/EV) in 2022 at ~US$100/bbl. At just US$70/bbl, the overall FCF yield is estimated at 15% for 2023 and >20% for 2024. Assuming US$110/bbl, this increases further to ~40% for each of 2023 and 2024. At YE24, balance sheet net cash, after paying shareholder distributio

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - 3p interim dividend & new policy

Updated Alkaid #2 test results

SHORE CAPITAL - Savannah Energy+ (SAVE, Under Review, Suspended) - Chad upstream asset update

Loony for Bougouni

Jubilee Metals - H1 FY2023 results

Jubilee today provides its unaudited financial results for the half-year period ending December 2022. Group Revenue of £63.1m (H1 FY2022: £63m) with £58m from its chrome/PGM operations in South Africa and £5m from copper in Zambia. Headline EBITDA of £10.3m (£13.7m) with a closing cash position of £11.7m (£21.5m) after continuing its capital investment program of £24.1m (£28.4m). Production of PGM was down in the period at 18.2koz (20.3koz), but all was from its own facility at Inyoni so cap

FY22 results update

Diversified Energy reported FY22 results that were slightly ahead of our expectations and we raise our 2023 EBITDA estimate by +3% ahead of what the group expects to be a ‘transformational' year.

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Wressle update

Ongoing strong production from Wressle. Union Jack has released an update on revenues from its Wressle field (Union Jack 40%). Wressle has now achieved over US$14m of cumulative net revenues from the field since mid-August 2021, from US$13m as of early February 2023. The field continues to produce under natural flow and with zero water cut (most recently reported at a gross rate of 825-850bbl/d). These Wressle revenues continue to help underpin company financial performance, while also providing

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 06 Mar 23

6 March 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment objective

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Interim dividend declaration

New interim dividend of 0.3p. Union Jack has announced an interim dividend of 0.3p/share. This follows the 0.8p/share paid in 2022, and is enabled by the ongoing cash flows being generated from the company's Wressle development. Union Jack's share buyback programme also continues, with 2,825k shares repurchased so far (out of a potential up to 11.3m).

Wide margins maintained despite inflation headwinds

The inherent low-cost structure of CAML’s Kounrad and Sasa operations shone through in 2022 as the group delivered a very stable financial performance in the face of significant macro-economic headwinds. Neither operation was fully immune to global inflationary pressures, but they nonetheless drove EBITDA and free cash flow (FCF) generation to an impressive $132m (a margin of 57%) and $90m respectively, only a little below 2021 levels despite the macro challenges. This enabled CAML to continue t

LIBERUM: Caledonia Mining* - Model updated

Morning Note – 27 March 2023

FY22 - Focus on the next 6 months' operations

Operations update

i3 Energy Update to Fair Value Estimate

We are updating our fair value estimate to reflect more conservative oil and gas price assumptions. We have lowered our 2023 WTI oil price estimate to $74.05/b from $83.10/b, to align our estimates with market dynamics. We have lowered our US benchmark (Henry Hub) natural gas price for 2023 to $3.02/mmbtu from $3.36/mmbtu, which reflects the most recent price forecast made by US EIA Short Term Energy Outlook. As a result, we are lowering our fair value estimate for i3 Energy to 26.2p from 31.6p