Q3: Big miss on profits, struggling chemicals

Another challenging quarter for OMV due to softening chemicals margins and the natural decline in oil and gas fields. Adjusted operating profit missed the consensus estimates by 10% while net profit came in 34% short. Despite slightly better contributions from the Borealis JVs, chemicals still posted losses. The outlook for the remainder of the year does not look that promising due to declining oil prices on the back of the higher supply, decreasing refining margins and the struggling chemicals

Auctus on Friday - 10/11/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: Rig-up at Anshof-2 – The rig-up at Anshof-2 has commenced with an expected spud date of 11 November. XST (20% WI in Anshof) will not participate in the well. ADX and MND will fund XST’s share of well costs on 50:50 basis and will in turn retain the right to 60% and 40% respectively of production from the well unless XST opts to buy back into the well at a premium of 400% to the we

Auctus on Friday - 03/11/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: On Track to start drilling in early November - 3Q23 production of 324 boe/d and cash of A$5.7 mm at the end of September were near our expectations. This includes 101 bbl/d gross production for Anshof that was shut-in on 19 September after reaching the regulatory limit for test production. Until that date the Anshof-3 well produced at a stable rate of 114 bbl/d, which is above the

Auctus on Friday - 13/10/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Pulsar Helium (PLSR CN)C; target price of C$0.90 per share: Additional acreage should increase the size of the prize – Pulsar has signed a lease with a private mineral rights holder to expand the area of the company’s Topaz helium project. The additional mineral rights are within a 6.2 mile radius of the Topaz discovery and cover a total of 2,840 gross acres (1,049 net acres). This represents ~100% increase to the existing 1,040 net

Q2: Chemicals, refining softens the H2 outlook

Adjusted operating income missed the consensus by 7% and was down by 60% yoy, driven by lower-than-expected results in the Chemicals business. Cash flow from operations was weak but positive after a €600m working capital release but was still down 50% yoy and 92% qoq. No details were forthcoming concerning the Borouge/Boreais merger with ADNOC. Oil prices above $80/bbl will be supportive, Q3 product spreads could result in higher refining but the chemicals outlook does not look that supportive.

Auctus on Friday - 28/07/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; target price of £0.50 per share: CN-2 flows at up to 1 mbbl/d. Focusing on developping the Ubaque at Carrizales Norte - The Carrizales Norte-2 well (CN-2) encountered 60’ of net pay in the Ubaque formation. The well has been put on production in the Ubaque with initial flow rates of 1,012 barrels of fluid per day. The water cut stabilized at 3% and the oil gravity is 13.6 API. The CN-2 well is currently

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/07/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.10 per share: Securing additional loan to prepare for drilling – ADX is issuing A$1.5 mm of loan notes with a term of 18 months. A$1.0 mm of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 8% per annum with 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.01 per share and 30 mm options with an exercise price of A$0.014 per share. The balance of the loan notes carry an interest rate of 12% per annum with 2

Borealis-Borouge merger strained by potential governance and a regulatory quagmire but catalysts still exist

If they materialise, the talks between OMV and ADNOC concerning the merger of Borealis and Borouge could create a $30bn chemicals giant and pave the way for further growth based on both market expansion and product diversification. OMV could own around c.38% of the new entity with a value of around €12.7bn. Furthermore, the merged entity will reinforce the integration and simplification of operations and could also allow for further growth in the petrochemicals sector with acquisitions and asset

Auctus on Friday - 16/06/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.95 per share: Transformational acquisition in Indonesia – Criterium is delivering on its plans by acquiring Mont D’Or Petroleum with long life and high netback production of 1,050 bbl/d and 4.7 mmbbl 2P reserves across 2 PSCs in Indonesia (Tungkal in South Sumatra and West Salawati in Southwest Papua). With important spare capacity in existing infrastructure and very low drilling costs (U

Q1: Solid cash flow before melting margins

OMV posted above-consensus results with an adjusted EBIT of €2.1bn (-10% qoq), supported by the refining and core energy business while chemicals continued its lower performance due to weak margins and declining demand. The operating cash flow excl. working capital was strong at €2bn, facilitating further deleveraging. With gearing at 2%, OMV enjoys a healthy balance sheet that will enable a maintained competitive dividend and the company to capitalize on a potential acquisition.

Auctus on Friday - 28/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d. The company held A$3.41 mm in cash at the end of March. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations. The company held C$3.7 mm in cash at YE22. Criterium has also filed the notice of intention to file a short form prospectus. This could be an indica

Auctus on Friday - 21/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: Competent person report confirms the materiality of the Welchau pospect – The Welchau prospect has been estimated to hold between 365 bcfe and 1,128 bcfe of prospective resources by Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) with a mid-case at 645 bcfe including 10.1 mmbbl of condensate. While this is below the 807 bcfe mid-case estimated by ADX, the fact that the lower end of the GCA ran

Auctus on Friday - 14/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella. High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours. The well is heavily choked (17/168) and is still unloading completion fluid (12% water cut). As witnessed at the other RCE wells, production is expected to increase as the well stabilizes. Initial production at RCE-5 is above expe

Auctus on Friday - 03/03/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN) C; Target price of A$0.50 per share: Good well results in Colombia – The RCE-3 well flowed naturally at rates equivalent to 2,000 bbl/d gross for four hours after unloading kill fluid. Over the last 24 hours, the well has produced at a rate of 968 bbl/d with 0% water cut. This is a very good result and compares with expectations of 600-800 bbl/d. The fact there is no water being produced at that the well i

Q4 profits drained by weak chemicals, gas trading

Softening market environment, inventory effects, and operational issues hamstrung the operating results in the chemicals business, dropping 73% in Q4 FY2022 on a quarterly basis. The record annual profits and operating cash flow, however, enabled OMV to announce a record high dividend in the company’s history to maintain investor confidence and benefit from the all-time-high results. After a turbulent year, FY2023 should stage another similar show across businesses.

i3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada site visit review

Last week we attended a site visit to i3’s assets in central Alberta in Canada – the company’s largest producing area. We were left with a favourable impression of the magnitude of the company’s operations in the region, of the professional operational running of these, and of the overall level of opportunity in this well-established oil and gas province.

Reabold Resources - Payment received from Shell

Good news for Reabold, which is set to receive £5.2m of the second tranche payment from Shell imminently for the Victory gas field it acquired last year. The final £4.4m payment is due once the development approval for the field is received from the NSTA in the coming months. These funds will allow RBD to progress its two onshore gas developments in the UK and Italy and consider further distributions to shareholders. Partner funding of these projects remains an issue, but RBD’s risk/reward profi

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

88 Energy, Falcon Oil & Gas, Trinity Exploration & Production, Plexus Holdings, Baron Oil, Harbour Energy, EnQuest, Capricorn Energy, Arrow Exploration, Southern Energy, Serinus Energy, SDX Energy, Panoro Energy, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, OKEA ASA, Equinor Source: FactSet, weekly change 27/11/23-1/12/23 Oil extended declines, closing out a sixth straight weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced Thursday failed to dispel the market’s gloom over swelling global supplies. West Texas Intermed

Pan African Resources - Valuation up 22.2% with new gold price forecasts

On 22 November, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced that operations to date in FY24 had performed in line with, or better than, expected, with gold production for H124 anticipated to be in the range 94,000–98,000oz (cf 92,307oz in H123). As a result, it increased its production guidance for FY24 to 180,000–190,000oz, which caused us to increase our production estimate in turn by 1.9% (or 3,575oz) to 189,725oz. The change made only a modest difference to our EPS forecasts for FY24 (see Exhibit

Tower Resources (TRP LN) - Initiation Report (SPECULATIVE BUY, 0.12p/sh TP)

Cameroon: Ready for the Rig

Morning Note – 4 December 2023

New Debt Facility – Lowering TRR Cost of Capital

We have been roadshowing Trident Royalties all week during which time the company released an announcement that they have entered into a commitment letter with BMO and CIBC for a new $40m revolving credit facility (RCF), with the potential to increase the facility to $60m via an accordion feature. The proceeds from the $40m are going to be used to repay the existing secured debt facility of $40m with Macquire in Q1 next year.

Hartshead Resources - Fully Funded Solution

Hartshead has secured a funding solution with partner Rockrose Energy to fund 100% of the Phase I development costs. Under the agreement, Hartshead has the option to exchange an additional 20% licence interest for an uncapped free carry, thereby covering the total cost of the Phase I development project (financing backstop). Importantly, Hartshead maintains at its election the option not to proceed with the RockRose financing solution, and introduce other financing solutions (eg project debt, pr

SP Angel Morning View: Ford takes 8.5% stake in Indonesian nickel project as Automakers swim upstream

SP Angel Morning View: Gold powers through $2,100/oz on outlook for Fed rate cuts

Southern Energy - 3Q Results and Comprehensive Update Note

Southern Energy delivered solid 3Q results with the focus of attention now turned towards the completion of 4 drilled uncompleted wells (“DUCs”). We see our investment thesis for Southern Energy – premised on the scale, location, quality, deliverability, low-cost nature of the company's Gwinville gas field in Mississippi, USA – very much strengthening based on our structural commodity price outlook and our growing confidence in the highly prolific Gwinville gas field, sharpening our interest in

UK-Listed Energy Sector: Review of the UK oil and gas landscape – why the country needs it, current policy and tax

The front of this note takes a look at the UK oil and gas sector, why domestic production is advantageous, what the main political parties think, and what could happen going forward. The latter part contains a review of the companies in our coverage – some that are UK centric, which give exposure to the note’s wider theme, and others that are focused elsewhere.

Baron Oil - Chuditch PSC – Six-Month Extension

Baron has been granted a further six-month extension to the Chuditch PSC. The end of Contract Year Two will now be 18 June 2024, at which time Baron will need to make a decision on entering Year Three. In the Third and final phase of the PSC, a final investment decision (FID) will be required on an appraisal well targeting the Chuditch discovery (Chuditch-2). Baron continues to make good progress in its discussions with potential funding partners, having previously announced that it is in “advan

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

Jersey Oil & Gas, Serica Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production, Longboat Energy, Ithaca Energy, Neptune Energy, Pantheon Resources, Nostrum Oil & Gas, Kufpec, ORLEN.

SP Angel Morning View: China lithium stocks rally on prospects for market rebound