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11 Aug 2023
A difficult quarter that further hinders visibility (and 15 qs)
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A difficult quarter that further hinders visibility (and 15 qs)
METRO AG (B4B:HAM) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
11 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Gwynn Andrew AG | Schumacher Anna AS -
Pages:
9 -
Another quarter that doesn''t help visibility on the turnaround
It remains hard to say if Metro''s latest turnaround strategy is doing much turning around. Introduced as we exited the pandemic, the recovery of the catering industry and food inflation initially flattered sales growth but then a cyber attack and now, poor weather, have impinged sales and earnings. Metro is taking share in several key markets, but EBITDA will fall over EUR150m this year and the group has announced it will need to spend EUR50m more opex to guard against future cyber-attacks. We tweak numbers (small in EUR terms, large in %) but hold our EUR5 TP steady. Underperform.
Still chasing the bigger spending consumer
Metro has spent the last 15 years or more trying to follow a bigger spending customer which has shifted spend away from the more traditional cash and carry warehouse. There are signs of decent progress in this respect with ''food service delivery'' (FSD) now 22% of revenue and Metro quite rapidly adding sales teams to capture a larger part of their customers'' spend. The ''Buy More Pay Less'' is encouraging more volume too. The result is market share gains.
But they''re not necessarily profitable and they take time to pay
The trouble with wholesale however, in contrast to retail, is that some (though by no means all!) market share gains can be a negative for absolute profit. There''s the higher cost to serve for delivery including that sales force. Bigger customers have more pricing power too. Further, growth in ''FSD'' starts to build receivables - they''re up EUR100m year on year. Unfortunately, when margins are low, 30 days of credit could be the equivalent of 2 years'' worth of profit awaiting collection.
Ultimately any turnaround isn''t translating into free cash flow
Profit then is a challenge but the ultimate question is, does it generate free cash flow? On our definition, we calculate Metro will only generate around cEUR60m on average across the next 3 years....