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  • 30 Jan 2023

A disrupted quarter unlikely to help low visibility


METRO AG (B4B:HAM) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Gwynn Andrew AG | Schumacher Anna AS

    • 9 pages


 

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A disrupted quarter unlikely to help low visibility


METRO AG (B4B:HAM) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 30 Jan 2023
  • Author: Gwynn Andrew AG | Schumacher Anna AS
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


A disrupted quarter, a PandL that''s hard to really grasp - Underperform Metro''s Q1 (calendar Q4, reported 8 Feb) is comfortably its most important. In 2019/20, the quarter represented more than 100% of the group''s FY EBIT, excluding real-estate gains but including transformation costs. A cyber-attack during the period then is particularly unhelpful which together with cost inflation is likely to drag 2022/23 EBITDA EUR75-225m. Unfortunately, the group hasn''t been too granular on the temporary impact of the cyber-attack versus the potentially stickier impact of cost inflation. Without property profit, it''s likely to tip Metro into another FY net loss we think. Another bite at the same strategy or something genuinely new? Taking a step back, Metro seems to be making some progress on its ''sCore'' project to focus on core accounts, private label, digital and ''food service distribution'' or FSD. Joining a management presentation, it all sounds quite exciting and fresh. Unfortunately, we still struggle to separate what''s new versus another go at a strategy that has at least some similarity with ''Shape 2012'' launched in 2009. How then to measure progress? Another net income loss expected for 2022/23 Theoretically, the proof should come in the PandL but as noted, we think Metro might deliver another net income loss in 2022/23, albeit, throwing in property profit, you could argue it will be positive and Metro may yet return to paying a dividend. With just a 0.5% adjusted EBIT margin (versus 1.0% last year) there''s the potential for a lot of volatility. But taking a step back, we struggle to get to a clean view given a policy to only partially adjust reporting for ''transformation costs''. Given Russia could be near 100% of group EBIT, what multiply to put on the figures too? No cash flow expected either - one to avoid we think What of cash flow? On our definition, there''s not a lot to note; we forecast zero to cEUR100m FCF between now and FY-2025. We can...

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