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  • 05 Mar 2025

Lacing up for the full year


adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB

    • 15 pages


 

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Lacing up for the full year


adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 05 Mar 2025
  • Author: Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB
  • Pages: 15
  • BNP Paribas Exane


We''ve seen these tactics before Having pre-announced Q4 headlines, today''s main news was Adidas'' 2025 EBIT guidance of EUR 1.7-1.8bn. Understandably, the market was initially disappointed, given that consensus sits at EUR 2,065m, but we view guidance as conservative and leave our forecasts broadly unchanged. We highlight the strong start to 2025 signalled by management on the conference call, the healthy cashflow, and we reiterate our Outperform rating. See inside for 15 questions for management. Double-digit across the board in Q4 Adidas had already pre-announced headline sales, margins and operating profits, but regional and channel performance were new details today. Only warehouse disruption in the Japan/South Korea division prevented a clean sweep of double-digit growth in Q4 across all regions, all channels, and all product groups. Most notably, Q4 Footwear constant currency revenue growth was +26%. Outlook: the new 2025 season On the earnings call, management clarified that the 2025 profit guidance was cautious due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other external factors, rather than any observed slowdown in the business. In fact, management confirmed that sales have grown by double-digits so far in 2025. The order book is strong, the product pipeline looks healthy, and we see opportunities to take market share in all markets, particularly US and China. Three-peat in 2025 Adidas shares outperformed in 2023 and 2024. We predict another year of outperformance as profitability continues to recover. The stock''s current CY26 P/E multiple of c.20x does not feel too demanding to us. Our forecasts are broadly unchanged (2025 EBIT EUR 2,070m) and we reiterate our Outperform rating and EUR 290 TP.

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Reassuring guidance includes the impact related to Russia/CIS risk

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More details on the SPEEDFACTORY

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China will continue to be the driver

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Adidas' management team may or may not change

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Adidas still expects strong growth in China for FY21

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AlphaValue
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