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Post-match analysis
''Own the Game'' strategy for 2025
Yesterday''s capital markets day set out Adidas'' ambition to take market share in all key geographies and balance this growth with attractive profit growth and cash distributions. In our view the 2025 guidance is conservative, and we sit above the implied net income range. That said, we bring near term forecasts closer to guidance, reflecting the planned exit of Reebok. The strategy is clear and the business has hit the ground running in 2021. We maintain our Outperform rating.
Strategy 2025
We had felt that the two key things Adidas had to do were showcase its innovation and guide to a 2025 margin that stretched beyond consensus, and we think both of these were achieved. The new strategy pivots Adidas to being a direct-to-consumer led organisation by 2025: aiming for 50% of sales from DTC; doubling online sales to represent 25-32% of total sales; and growing its membership base from 150m to 500m consumers. Key financial guidance from a 2021 baseline out to 2025 was constant currency sales CAGR of 8-10%, net income CAGR of 16-18%, 2025 EBIT margins of 12-14%, and EUR 8-9bn of cumulative cash distributed to shareholders. Particularly new things in the strategy announcement today were the narrowed focus on five key categories (Football, Running, Training, Outdoor; and Lifestyle to be segmented between sportswear and an elevated Originals sub-brand) and a doubled-down focus on key regions (China, N America and EMEA) and twelve key cities.
2021 outlook
Adidas has started the year well, with double-digit growth expected in Q1 despite lockdowns and mid-high teens sales growth expected for the year. Consensus sits at the top of the guided range and may not move much given the expectation that Adidas would guide conservatively. We have brought our high-end forecasts down, predominantly reflecting cost guidance deriving from the planned Reebok disposal. However our DCF-driven price target is unchanged at EUR 325.