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Q2 pre-close call feedback
Key message
Adidas IR held a group sell-side ''quarterly logic check'' call ahead of its Q2 results, which it is due to report on 31 July. We highlight that there has been no change to full-year guidance (see Figure 3) and that the purpose of the event was to provide a re-cap of previously published comments. There was no new commentary on Q2 trends or profitability.
Main topics
. Q2 cFX sales growth: at its Q1 results in April, management guided for underlying ex-Yeezy sales growth in Q2 to accelerate from the +5% achieved in Q1. At the time it had acknowledged that if April trends continued then it was possible that this could be double-digit constant currency growth. It remains to be seen how fast the acceleration will be. One of the reasons for management''s guidance of a sales acceleration is the benefit of Euro 24 and Copa America. Consensus looks for Q2 +6% constant currency albeit it is unclear whether this factors in any benefit from Yeezy sales in the quarter. See Figure 1 for details.
. Yeezy impact on sales: as a reminder, Adidas began 2024 with EUR 268m of legacy Yeezy inventory. In Q1 it generated sales of EUR 150m and profits of EUR 50m and had around EUR 200m of inventory remaining. Its guidance is to sell this at cost, which might include some profitable sales offset by some write-offs. During Q2 Yeezy was sold through its DTC channel and selected wholesale partners and in some cases there was some discounting. It has previously said that the economics of each drop would be different due to channel mix and need for discounting of broken sizes. Q2 will have some revenue benefit from Yeezy. It laps EUR 400m of sales from Q2 23 which, other things equal, is a 750bps drag to reported sales.
. Q2 gross margins: many of the Q1 margin drivers continue into Q2. These include the favourable mix by channel (DTC) and product (e.g. high margin terrace trend) as well as regional mix. Currency is as large a headwind in Q2 as Q1 because of...