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  • 01 Oct 2024

Q3 pre-close call feedback


adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Okines Warwick WO

    • 9 pages


 

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Q3 pre-close call feedback


adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 01 Oct 2024
  • Author: Okines Warwick WO
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Conclusion Adidas IR held a group sell-side ''quarterly logic check'' call ahead of its Q3 results, which it is due to report on 29 October. We highlight that there has been no change to full-year guidance and that the purpose of the event was to provide a re-cap of previously published comments. There was no new commentary on Q3 trends or profitability. Main topics . Q3 cFX sales growth: at its Q2 results Adidas commented that it did not expect a sequential improvement from the +16% ex-Yeezy growth it had achieved in the quarter. At the time it had noted that supply could be a constraint as it had fulfilled some Q2 wholesale demand from its planned Q3 DTC inventory. Consensus (per Visible Alpha) looks for Q3 +10% constant currency growth, but this includes a negative effect from Yeezy. We expect Terrace trend products to be a major driver, alongside soccer. See Figure 1 for details of consensus sales. . Yeezy impact on sales: Adidas began Q3 2024 with EUR c.150m of Yeezy inventory and management''s expectation is that this is sold at cost in the course of the second half. Q3 will have some revenue benefit from Yeezy. However, it laps EUR 350m of sales and EUR 150m of profits from Q3 23. Hence Yeezy is likely to be a year-on-year drag in Q3. On our own assumption of Q3 24 Yeezy revenues of EUR 100m, this implies a c.-500bps drag to sales growth. . Q3 gross margins: the prior year base excluding the 130bps benefit from Yeezy was c.48.0%. Currency remains a drag (c.100bps) but is less of a negative for gross margins than in H1 (c.- 300bps). Most other factors are likely to be positive (raw materials, channel/category/geography mix, with freight more neutral) but some of these mix benefits are likely to fade compared with the first half, particularly as wholesale and North America growth accelerate. We think that consensus expectations (Q3 50.1%) are likely to be in the right ball-park, given these moving parts. . Q3 profit expectations: Adidas...

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Reassuring guidance includes the impact related to Russia/CIS risk

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China will continue to be the driver

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Adidas' management team may or may not change

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Adidas still expects strong growth in China for FY21

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