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16 Oct 2024
Q3 pre-release: running the numbers

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Q3 pre-release: running the numbers
adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
16 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
12 -
Another beat and raise
Last night Adidas pre-released Q3 headline results, confirming continued momentum in the business and raising its full year profit guidance. This new guidance is already reflected in consensus, albeit consensus is likely to rise a little today on the basis that the implied Q4 guidance appears to remain conservative. There are some travel-and-arrive dynamics at play here, but we would expect that management has eyes on the prize in 2025 rather than seeking to maximise Q4 profitability, and we remain confident that the business is well set up for the year ahead.
Q3 EBIT EUR 598m - a modest beat against consensus
Q3 profits were slightly ahead of consensus (Visible Alpha EUR 584m) and ahead of management''s internal expectations. Excluding Yeezy, constant currency growth was +14% year-on-year despite market worries about inventory shortages. Inside we bridge the profitability excluding the distortion of Yeezy, showing that there was modest operating leverage and another material increase in operating margins.
Q4 - we expect double-digit sales growth; a clean exit into 2025 is key
Management raised its full year EBIT expectation to EUR c.1.2bn (from EUR c.1bn), roughly where consensus already sits. The raised full year cFX sales guidance of c.+10% could imply a wide range of outcomes for Q4, but we think low-double-digit growth ex-Yeezy is realistic. Brand momentum remains strong (see Figure 2) and exiting the year well set up for 2025 is likely to be management''s main priority. We expect this to be a key topic for the Q3 release on 29 October.
Reiterate Outperform
We raise our 2024 estimates to reflect the increased guidance. We maintain our DCF-derived target price at EUR 260, based on terminal EBIT margins of c.13%. This implies 23x 2026 earnings. We reiterate our Outperform rating.