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08 Nov 2023
Q3 results: building momentum (and 15qs)

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Q3 results: building momentum (and 15qs)
adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
08 Nov 2023 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Katsapas Nicolas NK | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
17 -
Controlling the game
Management had already pre-announced the Q3 headline results so there were limited surprises today. The main debate was the extent to which management is setting conservative guidance in Q4 and controlling expectations into 2024. It is carefully managing wholesale orders and wants to manage the brand heat of its franchises, which limits the near-term forecast upside risk, but in our view the turnaround story is showing good traction.
Building momentum in Q3
Headline results had already been released but several things stood out. Inventory reduced more than we had expected; sales in China grew by 10% excluding Yeezy; and the quality of profits in Q3 was a bit higher than we had expected, since Adidas booked higher one-off costs than we modelled.
Managing the brand heat
2023 is about laying the foundations for 2024 and beyond, and the main reason for sticking to its FY/Q4 2023 guidance is a desire not to chase sales but rather manage brand heat. Management did not comment in detail about 2024 but it expects to end 2023 with a positive wholesale orderbook for Q1 and Q2 and expects a strongly positive orderbook for Q3 and Q4. Supporting the growth in H2 24 will be management''s first co-ordinated go-to-market seasonal campaign for Autumn Winter 2024. The company was bullish on the product for AW24, citing good feedback from wholesale partners. So while the profit recovery may be H2 24 weighted, we think the turnaround is on track.
Reiterate Outperform
Our EBIT forecasts are broadly unchanged, but our profits fall on higher financial cost items. Our DCF valuation remains at EUR 210 and we reiterate our Outperform rating.