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29 Oct 2024
Q3 results: upbeat outlook (&15qs)

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Q3 results: upbeat outlook (&15qs)
adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
29 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Okines Warwick WO | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB -
Pages:
14 -
Q3 EPS beats but most attention on the outlook
Adidas pre-released Q3 sales and EBIT two weeks ago, and although EPS beat by c.12%, most of the focus was on the outlook commentary. Here management was upbeat: October has traded well, the order book is strong for the next few quarters and the brand''s heat is clearly broadening beyond the Terrace trend. We leave our EBIT forecasts unchanged, while banking the EPS beat, and reiterate our Outperform rating.
Q3 highlights
Today''s release filled out the detail on the quarter, and although EPS beat due to finance costs and tax, the lagging performance in North America was a particular focus (growth of +1% ex-Yeezy versus +14% global). On the other hand, there was stand-out strength in Europe and in Japan/South Korea - encouraging as this part of Asia led the Terrace trend and is leading Lo Profile.
Outlook: double-digit again next year
Management''s comments on the earnings call were reassuring, noting that the North America wholesale order book had still been negative in Q3, but is in double-digit growth for H1 25. It is optimistic about the US, with more to go for in the Terrace trend, momentum building in basketball and the potential to scale Superstar next year. It has not yet guided 2025, but it is clearly focused on double-digit sales growth, and the broadening brand momentum - not just Terrace (Samba, Gazelle etc.) but also several Performance sports, Lifestyle apparel and retro running - supports this.
Reiterate Outperform
We maintain our DCF-derived target price at EUR 260, based on terminal EBIT margins of c.13%. This implies 23.5x 2026 earnings which is a reasonable forward multiple for the stock to trade at in the next 12 months, in our view. We reiterate our Outperform rating.