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  • 12 Feb 2025

Why there’s more to play for


adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Okines Warwick WO | Vasilescu Laurent LV | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB

    • 24 pages


 

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Why there’s more to play for


adidas AG (ADS:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 12 Feb 2025
  • Author: Okines Warwick WO | Vasilescu Laurent LV | Strauss Mia MS | Barker Nick NB
  • Pages: 24
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Make Adidas Great Again Adidas shares have performed strongly since 2023. Now trading on a CY26 P/E of 22x, with consensus and us already fully embracing management''s 2026 margin goal of 10%, can the stock sustain its trajectory? In our view, topline momentum is vital to keep the Adidas story on track. We delve into the opportunities ahead for the brand and conclude that the best may be yet to come. Indeed, 2025 may present a unique opportunity for Adidas to claw back market share from Nike, its dominant rival. We raise our target price to EUR 290 and reiterate our Outperform rating. What''s around the bend Investors are wary of macro headwinds and challenging comparatives from the Terrace footwear trend. However, we identify several opportunities for Adidas to build on its recovery so far. Notably, its North America sales are flat since 2019, despite a growing market. In Greater China, its sales are down by one-third over the same period, while Nike has made gains. Furthermore, Adidas has lost market share in sportwear apparel, despite recent growth. We highlight the opportunity for Adidas to reclaim market share from Nike in 2025, as its rival downsizes its large lifestyle footwear franchises. Eyes on the 2026 prize Adidas targets 10% EBIT margins in 2026. We believe that Adidas can achieve this through double-digit brand sales growth and cost leveraging. Consensus already models 10.2% margins. But with a difficult backdrop of the European consumer sector, we believe that strong topline sales growth and a march towards higher margins will be sufficient for Adidas shares to outperform. Three-peat in 2025 Adidas shares outperformed in 2023 and 2024. We predict another year of outperformance as profitability continues to recover. The stock''s current CY26 P/E multiple of 22x does not feel too demanding to us. We reiterate our Outperform rating and raise our TP to EUR 290 (from EUR 280).

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Reassuring guidance includes the impact related to Russia/CIS risk

Companies: adidas AG

AlphaValue

More details on the SPEEDFACTORY

Companies: adidas AG

AlphaValue

China will continue to be the driver

Companies: adidas AG

AlphaValue

Adidas' management team may or may not change

Companies: adidas AG

AlphaValue

Adidas still expects strong growth in China for FY21

Companies: adidas AG

AlphaValue
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