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24 Apr 2023
FQ1''23 postview: Positive first step. Next stop: Orlando

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FQ1''23 postview: Positive first step. Next stop: Orlando
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
24 Apr 2023 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
22 -
Q1 just what the doctor ordered
Sentiment on SAP was cautious heading into Q1 but SAP delivered. Fears of a 2023 reset from the new CFO abated as SAP delivered accelerating Cloud Revenue and CCB (Current Cloud Backlog) growth (22% and 25% respectively), Cloud Gross Margin expansion (+250bps to 71.4%) and reiterated underlying 2023 guidance (ex-Qualtrics). While License outperformance drove an ''unclean'' beat on Operating Income, and FCF was noisy, overall Q1 ticked the right boxes, with the impressive S/4HANA Cloud momentum continuing (CCB +79%, and revenues +75%, nearing a EUR3bn ARR). This was complemented by an assured debut from new CFO Dominik Asam during the conference call, highlighting medium term FCF levers, helping the shares up 5%+ on the day.
Next up: update to 2025 targets at the SAPPHIRE Investor Day (16th May)
Consensus 2025 estimates look reasonable; in line for Cloud and Group Revenue, and below for EBIT and FCF vs the current guidance adjusting for FX and Qualtrics. While many investors still fear a 2025 reset, during the Q1 conf call, the CFO commended SAP for being on track with those targets. We see limited risk of a re-set and believe a reiteration of underlying targets would be taken positively, with the potential for beats along the way. At 16x FY24 EV/EBIT (incl. SBC) and a 4.6% FCF yield we see potential for a re-rating as SAP delivers on its Cloud transition and 2025 ambition.
Raising TP to EUR140 / USD154. SAP remains our top pick in European Software
We adjust our estimates following Q1 results; the most notable being 2024 Group Revenue growth is lifted to 10% ccy, following the confident message from SAP CEO around achieving double-digit growth next year. 2023 IFRS and BNPPE EPS move slightly lower on the increased SBC expected this year (given share price performance). We also assume SAP unwinds all of the ''exceptional'' sale of receivables resulting in a one-time impact of ~EUR400m to 2023 FCF. We raise our TP...