Q2 and FY expectations at risk The SAP story remains a complicated one. Near term, we see risks on the demand side as software spending decisions come under increased scrutiny, and Financials / Procurement / HCM and even SCM fall to the bottom of the spending priority list (as indicated in our latest BNPP Exane EuroVision Software-Reseller Channel-Check Survey). SAP specific spending intentions have also dropped over the past couple of months. In addition, on the cost side, consensus appears to not be modelling EUR200m of Russia exit costs in Q2, which will hit non-IFRS and IFRS numbers. As such, we are 12% below consensus non-IFRS EBIT for Q2. Falling venture fund profits will hit EPS, and we are 26% below consensus on Q2 non-IFRS EPS, with a 50% y/y fall. We believe a negative pre-announcement could come next week. Finally, with SAP dependent on a divestiture to hit the low end of the FY guide for a 0-5% fall in operating profit, risk to FY numbers exists. While many of these are ''one-offs'', the market is not in a mood for overly complicated stories, and these misses could be punished. But what about the 2023 inflection story? We are believers in SAP''s Cloud transition story and highlight that SAP will have ~50% of software revenues from the Cloud by the end of the year. The end of the tunnel is within sight! But SAP has pushed the gross margin inflection out to H2 2023, and considering the potential macro pressure on the top line, and near term margin weakness, we believe investors are not yet willing to look out 12+ months, especially with a CFO transition to navigate in between. Its too complicated for now. Downgrade to Neutral, and TP from EUR120 to 100. We see safety in Capgemini and Oracle Oracle (+) survived FQ4 results and de-risked its FY''23 outlook, and we see upside to Capgemini (+) consensus estimates. Both can deliver mid to high single digit revenue growth (like SAP) but with Oracle on ~13x CY23 EV/EBITA, and Capgemini on 11x...