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  • 22 May 2025

Postcard from Sapphire: new legs to the equity story start here


SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC

    • 22 pages


 

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Postcard from Sapphire: new legs to the equity story start here


SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%


  • Published: 22 May 2025
  • Author: Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC
  • Pages: 22
  • BNP Paribas Exane


We attended SAP Sapphire in-person in Orlando, FL over the past three days including the Financial Analyst Conference, keynotes from SAP executive board members and customers, seminars on SAP''s new technology innovation and discussions with partners. No new mid-term ambition, but plenty of ammunition to fuel new debates The two headline takeaways for markets to consider were; 1) SAPs comfort in talking to sustainable mid-teens % Revenue growth rates, and 2) commitment to achieving ''Rule of 40'' profile. Market expectations bake in 13% peak growth normalising to 10% by 2030, and ''Rule of 40'' (Growth + FCF margin) reaching no higher than 38% (2028), indicating 30% upside potential to mid-term FCF estimates. While SAP did not formally issue a new mid-term ambition, as some may have hoped, this new ammunition to fuel the debate should resonate well, in our view. If SAP needed new legs to the equity story we now have it: Data, AI, (more) efficiency. Our key takeaway from an innovation standpoint is: SAP is rapidly evolving into a leading technology provider encompassing Data and AI, added to its Application heritage. The message on operational efficiency has never been clearer (or louder), with evidence now visible in financials. Time for markets to revisit 2030 horizon with a wider variance in possible outcomes. Sustaining Revenue growth of mid-teens % has not been part of the debate to date, rather a focus on the growth peak and deceleration curve over time. Should the market begin pricing that growth potential, together with the continued impressive margin expansion, the outcomes start to close in on our Blue-Sky scenario assumptions of 14% Revenue CAGR and Rule of ~45% (and EUR450 2-year share price scenario). There remain moving parts to consider: SAP shifting to a Data / AI led company is a step change, and there is a possible question mark on 2026 FCF, but with the market seeking additional catalysts for the equity story beyond the S/4 cloud...

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