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11 Apr 2023
Preparing for Q1: focus on CFO and updates to guidance

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Preparing for Q1: focus on CFO and updates to guidance
SAP SE (SAP:ETR) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
11 Apr 2023 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Castillo-Bernaus Ben BC -
Pages:
17 -
Many moving parts for SAP''s FQ1''23 results (Friday 21 April pre market)
We expect the market to focus on SAP''s new CFO communication and updated 2023 guidance for continued operations (ex-Qualtrics). After removing Qualtrics from our estimates, we now estimate 24% organic Cloud revenue growth, 69.7% Cloud gross margins, 25.0% non IFRS operating margins (up y/y!) and EUR2.2bn FCF. Given Q1''s small contribution, we would expect SAP''s new 2023 guide update to simply remove Qualtrics'' FY guide (XM results on the 20th). Given the pending sale of Qualtrics, we expect SAP to remove its 2025 mid-term targets, to be updated at its CMD on 16th May. Should SAP reiterate the 2025 targets, even without Qualtrics included, this would be a notable positive in our view indicating mid-single digit % upgrades to 2025 comparable consensus earnings estimates. Another low probably positive catalyst is the new CFO initiating quarterly guidance with a Q2 guide. Within this report, we also publish results of our Quarterly EuroVision Software Reseller Survey, highlighted by an improved outlook for SAP with 50% of respondents expecting y/y spend growth with SAP in next 3-months (up from 27% in Jan). Our conversations with SAP partners remain supportive of SAP RISE success and momentum for S/4HANA Cloud.
Adjusting 2023 estimates for pending Qualtrics sale, following Thursday call with company
SAP will report Qualtrics as a discontinued (profit after tax) item from Q1''23. As such we now expect FY2023 Cloud Revenue of EUR14.2bn, Group Revenue of EUR31.3bn, Operating Profit EUR6.03bn / 8.77bn with a margin of 19.2 / 28.0%, dil. EPS of EUR3.55 / 5.21 (IFRS / Non-IFRS) and CFO / FCF of EUR6.3 / 4.9bn. We model 25% organic Cloud Revenue growth. Our 2024/25 estimates are unchanged as we had already assumed the deal closes at 2023 year-end.
With high recurring revs, SAP remains top pick in European Software. Outperform reiterated
We had already removed Qualtrics from 2024 and...