SAP to report Q1 results on Monday 22-April after US market close With recent Cons. upgrades to Q1 estimates we now see less scope for a positive earnings surprise in Q1, however Q1 can show continued execution and incrementally help de-risk 2025 targets. We identify 3 points to watch for: 1) raised consensus expectations for Q1 CCB growth to 26% (from 24% at FY); while achievable and in line with FY24 guidance does reduce scope for potential upside surprise here, 2) Cloud Revenue growth is expected to come in slightly below CCB growth for Q1 (Cons: 25% / BNPP: 24%) as Co. has communicated, 3) Margins: we flag risks related to higher SBC charge - now included in Co. EBIT - may technically weigh on margins, though our new underlying opex analysis points to upside to 2025 targets, which may start to become visible at Q1. SAP will also report its new Cloud ERP KPI (2-year quarterly historical provided), further validating the growth engine at the core of SAP''s revenue growth acceleration story. Beyond Q1: Sapphire and continued execution to add excitement to mid-term equity story Beyond Q1''24 we would look to the June CMD at Sapphire to provide more visibility on the GenAI product roadmap and - importantly - monetisation opportunity. We do not expect revised or new mid-term targets this year, instead we expect SAP to provide a new mid-term outlook next year when current targets are more comfortably de-risked, which we expect to materialise through 2024. SAP remains our top pick within European Software - EUR TP unch. EUR225 / ADR to $241 Our revenue, FCF and gross margin estimates are broadly unchanged. We increase SBC charge by ~EUR100m reflecting recent share price performance, but new opex analysis highlights cushion in 2025 adj. EBIT target even embedding scope for EUR2bn reinvestment. We raise adj. EBIT 2024/25 by 4-5% accordingly, now slightly above Co. targets. SAP''s Cloud transition remains on track; with continued execution, upside to 2025 EBIT...